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Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, anticipates that Bitcoin may deviate from its traditional four-year cycle and achieve notable gains in 2026 — a perspective that contrasts with widespread expectations of a cycle peak occurring later this year.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasts that Bitcoin could experience substantial gains in 2026, moving away from its historical four-year cycle.
- He attributes this potential to diminished halving effects, enhanced regulation, and increased institutional adoption as factors contributing to long-term momentum.
- Hougan cautions that Bitcoin treasury firms might present risks if they become overleveraged during market declines.
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan stated in a video posted on X, adding, “I generally believe we’re in for a favorable few years.”
His comments arise amid growing discussions regarding the relevance of the traditional Bitcoin halving-driven model.
Hougan Indicates Bitcoin Halving Cycle Losing Its Impact
Hougan suggests that various elements are now surpassing the halving cycle’s influence. He contended that the effects of halvings diminish over time, as each subsequent halving reduces rewards by a smaller absolute figure.
He also highlighted the broader macroeconomic context, where U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, a strategy that could redirect capital from bonds to riskier assets like Bitcoin.
“Blow-up risk is lessened, thanks to improved regulation and the institutionalization of the sector,” Hougan remarked, observing that clearer guidelines and increasing institutional participation have lowered the chances of market disruptions.
He further noted that ongoing adoption by conventional firms could prolong Bitcoin’s bullish momentum well beyond historical patterns.
Nonetheless, Hougan also identified potential risks. He pointed to the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies — entities that acquire BTC through debt or equity financing — as a possible weakness.
DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???
The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we’re going higher in 2026.
Early profit takers will be left behind!!!
Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in commentspic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN
— Kyle Chassé / DD
(@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025
pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN
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Asset management firm VanEck has expressed similar concerns, cautioning that such companies could be overleveraged if the market shifts.
Despite these warnings, Hougan anticipates a more gradual progression ahead. “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he stated, although he acknowledged that the journey will still involve volatility.
Bitcoin is presently trading around $118,169, having increased over 10% in the last month, according to Nansen.
Hougan’s perspective aligns with recent statements from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who declared the four-year cycle “dead,” citing a change in whale behavior.
“Old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is larger than we anticipated,” Ju remarked.
Bitcoin Could Peak in October If 2020 Cycle Repeats, Says Analyst
However, not all analysts share this view. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently cautioned that if Bitcoin replicates its 2020 cycle, the market might peak in October, 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
This scenario would keep Bitcoin firmly within its historical pattern, indicating that the discussion regarding its future direction is far from resolved.
Bitcoin’s robust performance and increasing recognition as a store of value have led analyst Tom Lee to label it “Digital Gold,” with an ambitious long-term price prediction of $1 million.
Speaking on CNBC, Lee highlighted Bitcoin’s emergence as an asset class that could rival gold’s supremacy.
He also referenced recent regulatory advancements, such as the approval of the GENIUS Act, as a favorable indicator for the crypto industry.
Lee believes a Bitcoin price of $200K–$250K is attainable, representing only a small portion of gold’s market capitalization.
The post Bitwise CIO Bets on Bitcoin Rally in 2026, Defying 4-Year Cycle appeared first on Cryptonews.
