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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced volatile trading following the release of a significantly stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report for September, fluctuating between the $61,000 and $62,000 marks as traders assess the economic outlook and geopolitical uncertainties.
#US NFP September 254k vs 147k exp.
Pr 142k.
Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% exp/pr.
Participation rate 67.7% vs 62.7% exp/pr.
Wages 4.0% vs 3.8% exp/pr y/y.$USD— Forex Analytix (@forexanalytix) October 4, 2024
The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly surpassing the median expectation of 147,000 from Wall Street.
The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, while the annual wage growth rate increased to 4.0% from 3.8% in August.
This robust report has led macro traders to largely eliminate expectations for an additional 50 basis points rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, money markets were recently indicating nearly a 95% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut next month.
CME FEDWATCH SHOWS 90.9% FOR 25BPS CUT AT FOMC NOV 7 MEETING, SHOWS 9.1% FOR 50BPS CUT
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 4, 2024
The data reinforces the view that a soft landing for the US economy is highly probable.
This suggests that the Fed will likely achieve its goal of controlling inflation while avoiding a recession.
Although this implies a somewhat slower pace of rate reductions, the Fed is still anticipated to implement significant rate cuts this year and in 2025.
The combination of ongoing strong US economic growth and a more accommodative monetary policy environment should be favorable for risk assets and the Bitcoin price.
The Bitcoin price has declined by approximately 6.6% since the beginning of the week. Is a new rebound imminent?
What’s Next for the Bitcoin Price?
Geopolitical risk continues to be a crucial consideration for the Bitcoin market, as well as for broader financial markets.
Israel is expected to retaliate against Iran soon, following the latter’s missile strike earlier this week.
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Everyone on X : ” Uptober is here, Q4 is very bullish”
Iran to Israel : pic.twitter.com/AIUwi7G5fW— naiive (@naiivememe) October 2, 2024
This could potentially ignite a full-scale conflict between the two nations, which might severely disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East.
This poses a significant risk to the global economy and is currently tempering risk appetite, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector.
Had it not been for the recent geopolitical tensions, this week’s US economic data would likely have fueled a strong rally in the Bitcoin price, possibly reaching as high as $70,000.
The positive macroeconomic backdrop in the US raises the chances of a robust rebound later this month—October is typically Bitcoin’s strongest month of the year.
However, due to the deteriorating geopolitical situation, “uptober” may not materialize this year.
At least, that appears to be the sentiment among Polymarket users, who assign only a 25% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 this month, compared to a 42% probability for hitting $55,000.
Standard Chartered, in a note released earlier this week, cautioned that a short-term decline below $60,000 is probable.
Nevertheless, they advised investors to consider buying into this dip.
JUST IN: $800 billion Standard Chartered bank says a #Bitcoin dip under $60,000 “should be bought into.”
Bullishpic.twitter.com/XLkV7g2ztK
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 3, 2024
Indeed, geopolitical events typically exert only a short-term influence on markets such as Bitcoin and US equities.
Long-term factors, such as a global monetary policy easing cycle, could potentially drive Bitcoin back to its all-time highs later in 2024 or in 2025.
This would align well with Bitcoin’s typical post-US election and delayed post-halving rally.
While October may be turbulent, the prospect of $100,000 remains feasible in the upcoming quarters for the Bitcoin price.
The post Bitcoin Price Chops After Strong US Jobs Report – Where Next for BTC? appeared first on Cryptonews.
