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Bitcoin Value Declines Following US Acknowledgment of Nearly 1 Million ‘Phantom’ Jobs in Data Adjustment
The price of Bitcoin did not merely decline; it responded to a much larger issue.
The U.S. government adjusted last year’s employment figures downward by almost 900,000 jobs.
Markets are more averse to unreliable data and uncertainty than they are to negative news.
This announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly undermined confidence. January reported 130,000 new jobs, which seems acceptable at first glance. However, the substantial downward revision for 2025 alters the entire narrative.
Source: Bureau of Labor
A considerable portion of the reported strength relied on preliminary estimates, including the birth–death model, which can exaggerate job creation during times of economic change.
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What Does This Imply for Bitcoin Price?
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Following this rise in uncertainty, risk assets faced declines. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year moving from 4.15% to 4.20%.
Uncertainty is detrimental to markets. This is evident in the derivatives flows. Whale perpetual activity is rising, indicating that institutions are heavily hedging against further declines.
The probability of a rate cut in March plummeted from 22% to 9% within minutes. Such a shift alters the overall market sentiment. Coupled with new alerts regarding volatility risks across significant portions of BTC supply, the situation becomes even more challenging.
Source: CMEGroup
Could this signify the bottom? Perhaps. However, given the current market behavior, it does not appear ready to embrace that notion just yet.
Monitor the bond market closely. As long as yields continue to rise, Bitcoin will struggle to establish a stable footing. This is simply how the liquidity dynamics operate.
Nonetheless, chaos often presents unique opportunities.
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