Bitcoin Surpasses $106K Following Trump’s Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran — Is $110K on the Horizon?

Bitcoin rebounded above the $106,000 threshold on Monday, after a temporary decline below $98,500 on Sunday, which marked the lowest point in 45 days.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin surged back to $106K after falling beneath $98.5K, following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire.
• An 8% decline in Bitcoin’s hashrate raised some concerns, although analysts indicate that such fluctuations are typical.
• Markets are now factoring in increased probabilities of Federal Reserve rate reductions, which benefits risk assets like BTC.

This recovery occurred after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, alleviating market anxieties following a weekend filled with geopolitical tension.

The abrupt price drop resulted in $193 million in liquidations of long leveraged Bitcoin positions, yet this represented only 0.3% of the total open interest.

With approximately $68 billion in leveraged positions still in play, the derivatives market appears to be largely unaffected.

Bitcoin’s Hashrate Declines 8% in One Week

Compounding the volatility, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell by 8% over the past week, decreasing from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s, sparking speculation regarding disrupted mining operations.

Analysts have highlighted Iran’s influence in global mining, although precise data remains hard to obtain. Reports indicate that unauthorized mining activities in the country may consume up to 2 gigawatts of electricity.

Nonetheless, sudden changes in hashrate are not unusual. Energy-related shutdowns in the U.S. frequently contribute to these variations.

Analyst Daniel Batten observed that similar declines occur during severe weather conditions, such as the storms in Texas and Oklahoma on April 22, which temporarily reduced hashrate by 27%.

No this is not because Iran is secretly mining large swathes of Bitcoin using nuclear energy. Firstly, drops like this are common (see chart below) and are more likely due to ERCOT curtailment (being paid to shed load, or getting a price signal it’s uneconomical to mine).… https://t.co/AxX3poncZ6 pic.twitter.com/XnL4YGaMCl

— Daniel Batten (@DSBatten) June 23, 2025

On the macroeconomic front, oil prices experienced a significant decline on Monday, retreating from a Sunday high of $77, as broader markets reacted positively to the ceasefire. The S&P 500 increased by 1%, while expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts grew.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current 4.25% rate through November has decreased to 8.4%.

At the same time, the probability of rates dropping to 3.75% or lower has risen to 53%, up from 38% the previous week.

Whether Bitcoin can surpass $110,000 remains uncertain, but the swift recovery indicates that institutional interest has not diminished.

Currently, traders are weighing optimism regarding de-escalation against caution concerning global and macroeconomic factors.

Crypto Funds Record $1.24B in 10th Week of Inflows

Crypto funds saw inflows of $1.24 billion last week, marking the tenth consecutive week of increases and bringing year-to-date totals to a record $15.1 billion.

Despite this achievement, the rate of inflows slowed in the latter part of the week.

The report attributed this slowdown to the U.S. Juneteenth holiday and escalating geopolitical uncertainty related to reports of U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.

The U.S. remained the primary contributor, providing $1.25 billion in inflows. Canada and Germany contributed $20.9 million and $10.9 million, respectively.

Bitcoin drew in $1.1 billion in new capital, marking its second consecutive week of inflows despite recent price declines, indicating ongoing interest from institutional investors.

Conversely, short-Bitcoin products experienced modest outflows of $1.4 million, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

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