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Bitcoin Indicates a “Pandemic Period” Risk-Reward Configuration Once More, According to Bitwise Analyst
According to André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s current price movements may be indicating a familiar pattern.
Key Takeaways:
- André Dragosch, the research leader at Bitwise Europe, suggests that Bitcoin now exhibits a risk-reward profile reminiscent of the COVID-19 era.
- He contends that BTC is already reflecting a recession-like perspective following significant sell-offs and substantial liquidations.
- Dragosch anticipates a rebound in global growth as previous stimulus measures take effect, which could subsequently benefit Bitcoin.
In a recent update on X, Dragosch noted that the market is starting to mirror the extreme risk-reward conditions observed during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The last time I encountered such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch stated in a post on X on Friday, referencing March 2020 when Bitcoin plummeted from approximately $8,000 to below $5,000 amid widespread market panic.
Bitwise Analyst: Bitcoin Now Trading as If a Global Downturn Is Occurring
Dragosch asserted that the current market environment feels analogous, not due to a health crisis, but because Bitcoin is once again behaving as if a significant downturn is already in progress.
He indicated that the cryptocurrency seems to be “pricing in” what he described as the most pessimistic global growth outlook since 2022, a time characterized by aggressive rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve and the shocking collapse of FTX.
“Bitcoin is effectively pricing in a recessionary growth scenario,” he remarked, adding that the market has likely absorbed “much of the negative news” already.
Recent price trends support the notion that sentiment has sharply declined. Bitcoin has decreased by over 17% in the last 30 days, as reported by CoinMarketCap.
This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.
It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex – because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.
The question investors constantly face is:
“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT— André Dragosch, PhD
(@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025
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After reaching an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, the asset entered a prolonged pullback following a $19 billion liquidation wave on October 10. This decline occurred shortly after Donald Trump announced extensive new tariffs on Chinese imports.
Momentum further weakened in mid-November when Bitcoin fell below $100,000, a threshold many traders considered psychological support.
Although the price briefly dipped below $90,000 on November 20, buyers quickly intervened, raising hopes that a support level may be forming.
Dragosch believes the prevailing pessimism could be unfounded. He argues that global growth may soon improve as earlier monetary stimulus circulates through the economy, reflecting a pattern similar to the post-COVID expansion.
“I genuinely think we’re facing a comparable macro setup right now,” he stated.
Cathie Wood Predicts Liquidity Rebound for Crypto
As previously reported, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has predicted that the liquidity crunch affecting crypto and AI markets will reverse within weeks, driven by three anticipated Federal Reserve policy changes before the year concludes.
Her firm continues to actively purchase crypto equities during the downturn, investing over $93 million in a single day this week across undervalued digital asset stocks.
During ARK’s November market webinar, she highlighted three temporary liquidity constraints she expects to dissipate quickly due to Federal Reserve actions and renewed government spending.
Wood anticipates that the Federal Reserve will conclude quantitative tightening at its December 10 meeting, thereby alleviating one pressure point.
The government shutdown that led to the accumulation of cash in the Treasury General Account has ended, allowing funds to return to circulation.
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