Bitcoin Increases as Markets React to Trump’s State of the Union Address

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rise of over $2,000, reclaiming the $66,000 mark on Tuesday evening, spurred by risk-on sentiment in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

Although the cryptocurrency has since slightly retreated to around $65,500, as per CoinGecko, this movement indicates a possible localized bottom as traders assess the administration’s economic messaging amid a broader equity rally.

Key Takeaways

• The Catalyst: Trump’s assertions of “plummeting inflation” and an economic turnaround sparked a 3.5% relief rally across risk assets.
• The Level: Bitcoin faced immediate resistance at $66,000 but maintained support above $64,500, establishing a narrow consolidation range.
• The Setup: Traders are focusing on Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday as a crucial volume trigger to either validate or negate the recent bounce.

Trump Address Fuels Risk-On Rotation into Bitcoin

The immediate driver for the price movement was the State of the Union address, where President Trump characterized his first year back in office as an economic “turnaround for the ages.”

By emphasizing decreasing mortgage rates and a 1.7% drop in core inflation over the last three months of 2025, the address provided a macro tailwind for risk assets that had been impacted by regulatory uncertainties.

Markets responded positively to the commitment that the U.S. economy would “never revert” to previous policies, triggering a relief rally that saw Bitcoin rise from around $64,000 to peak at $66,000 just before the 9 pm ET speech.

This response sharply contrasts with earlier volatility, where Bitcoin’s price dipped below $65k due to concerns over Trump’s tariff risks, underscoring the market’s heightened sensitivity to fiscal signals.

Post-Trump Address: Can Bitcoin Bulls Defend $64,500?

Bitcoin’s rejection at $66,000 has placed price action in a delicate consolidation phase. The asset is currently trading approximately 3.7% higher on the day, but the failure to close a 4-hour candle above $66,500 indicates that buy-side exhaustion may still be present.

Source: TradingView

Support is firmly establishing at $64,500. If this level fails, it lends credence to claims by Polymarket and CryptoQuant that $55,000 could be the next local bottom.

Recent data indicates that $370M in liquidations were necessary to uphold the $60k level earlier this week, suggesting that significant support exists lower down, but bulls cannot afford further tests of those lows if the recovery narrative is to remain intact.

Three metrics are currently signaling capitulation-level readings, with Bitcoin still down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high. While short-term engagement has risen, the absence of follow-through volume at $66,000 remains a concern for technical traders seeking a trend reversal.

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Risk Sentiment and Nvidia Correlation

The broader market context indicates that Bitcoin is once again exhibiting a high correlation with equities. Asian stocks rallied overnight, and markets are optimistic ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report scheduled for Wednesday.

This tech-driven optimism has extended into the crypto space, particularly benefiting altcoins more than Bitcoin, such as Solana, which has increased by 8% in the last 24 hours, and Chainlink, which rose by 5% during the same timeframe.

JUST IN: Eric Trump states Bitcoin will reach $1 million.
“I’ve never been more bullish on Bitcoin in my life.” pic.twitter.com/niJH5ILfh9

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) February 18, 2026

However, institutional flows present a more cautious narrative. Recent ETF outflows indicate institutional hesitance, with smart money reluctant to deploy capital aggressively until a clear break above structural resistance is observed.

If Nvidia’s earnings disappoint, the risk-off rotation could pull Bitcoin back toward the $63,000 range, irrespective of Trump’s fiscal assurances.

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What Happens Next?

Traders need to monitor two specific levels in the next 24 hours. For the bullish rebound to persist, Bitcoin must reclaim $67,500 to confirm a break from the local downtrend. A close above this threshold would pave the way to $70,000.

On the other hand, a decline below $64,000 would invalidate the post-speech bounce. Market sentiment remains fragile; currently, Polymarket odds indicate traders are factoring in a potential drop to $55k if macro headwinds continue. Until $67,500 is reclaimed, the trend appears to favor the bears.

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