Bitcoin Faces Downward Pressure Near $90,000: Is This the Conclusion of the Bull Market? | November Update

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin concluded October with a significant correction but did not incur structural damage.
• The price has been stabilizing between $105,000 and $116,000, indicating a balance of pressure from both buyers and sellers.
• Analysts view the current phase as a reset rather than a cycle conclusion. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have remained consistent following October’s outflows, reflecting a cautious optimism.
• Liquidity and sentiment are the primary factors influencing a potential rebound by year-end.

Bitcoin (BTC) ended October on a downbeat note, aligning with the overall crypto market. The community is divided. Some believe BTC must first sweep liquidity below current levels before a new rally can commence. Others express less optimism, suggesting the bull cycle may have already concluded.

As of Oct. 31, Bitcoin’s annual performance is approximately +53%. With two months remaining before the end of 2025, the question persists as to whether the coin can regain momentum or if investor enthusiasm has already diminished.

Experts indicate that there is still potential for a deeper pullback and a possible test of the $90,000 mark, while buyers show limited conviction to surpass the $116,000 level.

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Examining Bitcoin’s annual returns, the last five years have generally been favorable — exceeding 50% each year, except for 2022, when BTC declined by 62%. This consistent resilience contributes to Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold.” In contrast, the spot gold price increased by approximately 35% in 2024, marking its strongest performance in the last five years. This strength highlights the ongoing instability in the global environment.

If Bitcoin follows a more negative trajectory and loses its $100,000 support level, can it still be regarded as digital gold? In this Cryptonews monthly report, we investigate what the future holds for the market’s leading asset.

‘This Feels Like a Reset, Not a Cycle Peak’

The chart below illustrates Bitcoin’s price range following the sharp selloff on Oct. 10. In comparison to Ethereum and altcoins, Bitcoin has demonstrated greater resilience during the correction. BTC is currently trading between $116,000 and $105,000, resembling a game of ping-pong.

Each time the price approaches $106,000, it rebounds to the upper end of the range near $116,000. For the moment, the $105,000 support is intact, yet there is still no breakout in either direction. Neither buyers nor sellers appear to dominate.

Cais Manai, Co-Founder and Head of Product at TEN Protocol, informed Cryptonews that the current structure does not indicate the end of the cycle but rather a mid-cycle reset. He adds that a deeper correction could be succeeded by a robust rebound if macro conditions improve:

I don’t believe the cycle is over. There’s no euphoria yet, no retail frenzy, no blow-off tops, no widespread FOMO. We’ve observed significant ETF flows, but the average investor hasn’t participated. Could BTC reach $90,000 under increased macro pressure? Possibly. If the Fed eases and liquidity returns, we might see one last surge — BTC $120,000, ETH mid-$5,000, altcoins soaring. That’s when euphoria will emerge.

In a conversation with Cryptonews, Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEx, concurs that the path ahead is heavily reliant on liquidity and capital inflows. She notes that while the conditions for a year-end rally are present, it is not assured:

It’s possible but contingent. Historically, Q4 tends to be stronger, and market seasonality combined with improving on-chain liquidity are all favorable tailwinds.

According to Carola, the prospect of achieving a new all-time high depends on several critical factors aligning:

Achieving a new ATH in November–December will rely on three synchronized elements: a renewed influx of substantial net inflows, the absence of a significant macro shock, and positive optics on regulation. If these align, a late-year surge is feasible. Otherwise, consolidation within the current range is more probable. I would frame it as scenario-driven rather than a binary yes/no, as the likelihood increases significantly if liquidity and inflows rise.

Institutional Investors Are Cautious, but They’re Returning to Bitcoin

Early October witnessed a surge of institutional activity in Bitcoin ETFs, as reported by CoinGlass. On Oct. 6, inflows exceeded $1 billion, followed by another strong day on Oct. 10, just prior to the market downturn.

At that moment, sentiment was predominantly bullish: ETF inflows were increasing, Bitcoin was testing new highs, and altcoins were catching up. In retrospect, the setup now resembles a classic trap that lured many traders into long positions before the correction. When prices fell on Oct. 10, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a $4.5 billion net outflow, a significant move by any measure.

However, throughout the remainder of the month, flows stabilized. There were several smaller outflows, but also consistent inflows. The equilibrium between the two indicates that investors remain cautious but have not exited the market entirely.

This pattern reflects Bitcoin’s sideways price movement, as the asset consolidates between $105,000 and $116,000. Carola observes that no single group is currently dictating the market’s pace. Instead, it is a coordinated interaction among various types of capital:

At present, there is no singular actor setting the rhythm. It’s more accurate to say that the market is being orchestrated by a combination of passive flows, including ETF allocations and treasury managers, active liquidity providers such as market makers and OTC desks, and risk-hedging behavior from institutional desks.

She adds that the primary force influencing Bitcoin’s range is not retail speculation but rather large, long-duration capital pools:

Retail appears at the margins, but it’s the large, long-duration pools of capital such as ETFs, exchanges, and custody providers that increasingly determine how wide or narrow ranges become. Together, liquidity providers and institutional allocators set the tempo by deciding where and when to place large bids and offers, as macro headlines and policy signals provide the rhythm.

Bitcoin Survived the Shakeout

The October correction was abrupt, yet it did not result in structural damage. Bitcoin’s range-bound movement signifies a market still in transition rather than decline. Institutional flows indicate caution, not capitulation, while long-term holders continue to regard BTC as a hedge against uncertainty.

Early November brings a dense array of macroeconomic data that could impact Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. Concurrently, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to affect data releases, leaving some key indicators delayed or absent. This combination could trigger periods of high volatility in both directions as traders respond to fragmented information and shifting expectations.

The upcoming weeks will test whether stability can transform into renewed momentum, but for now, Bitcoin’s narrative remains one of quiet resilience. If critical levels fail to hold and the price declines toward $90,000, it could also challenge Bitcoin’s status as digital gold. Such a movement would position its yearly performance significantly below previous cycles, raising new questions about its role as a long-term store of value.

Economic and Crypto Calendar for November 2025

• November 3 — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

A leading indicator of U.S. manufacturing activity. Readings below 50 suggest contraction and may exert pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

• November 3 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)

One of the most closely monitored U.S. economic reports. A weak figure could heighten expectations for Fed easing and enhance crypto sentiment.

• November 3 — ISM Manufacturing Prices (October)

Tracks input cost trends in the manufacturing sector. Rising prices could reignite inflation concerns and influence Fed rate expectations.

• November 4 — JOLTS Job Openings (September)

Measures the number of job vacancies in the U.S. labor market. A strong reading indicates tight employment conditions, while a decline could support expectations of slower economic growth and a more dovish Fed stance.

• November 5 — S&P Global Services PMI (October)

Provides insight into business activity in the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, supporting risk sentiment across traditional and crypto markets.

• November 5 — ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)

A key measure of service-sector strength. Strong results could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while weaker data may boost hopes for policy easing.

• November 13 — CPI (MoM) (October)

The monthly U.S. inflation report. A higher-than-expected increase could pressure risk assets and delay Fed rate cuts, while a soft print may aid Bitcoin’s recovery.

• November 13 — CPI (YoY) (October)

The headline inflation figure. Year-over-year trends will guide investor expectations for monetary policy and could drive short-term volatility across crypto markets.

• November 21 — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

The flash reading for U.S. manufacturing activity in November. Early signs of slowdown or recovery may influence risk appetite as the year comes to a close.

• November 21 — S&P Global Services PMI (November)

An advanced look at service-sector performance. Strong data could bolster confidence in the U.S. economy, while weakness may renew pressure on the Fed to ease policy sooner.

Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

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