Bitcoin Cash Price Forecast: Significant Increase of 122% in Whale Transactions – Is BCH Poised to Surpass Bitcoin?

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has recently experienced an upward trend, with a notable 112% weekly increase in whale accumulation, indicating a strong vote of confidence from institutional investors. This development suggests that the short-term price outlook for Bitcoin Cash may surpass that of Bitcoin itself.

The altcoin has achieved a 70% increase over the last three months, maintaining a consistent upward trajectory since the market bottom in mid-April, while many others have seen their momentum slow due to macroeconomic fears.

With President Trump’s tariff letters reigniting trade discussions ahead of the extended August 1 “Liberation Day” pause deadline, new macroeconomic uncertainties could enable BCH to outperform once more.

BREAKING: President Trump has issued additional “tariff letters” with the following rates announced today:
1. Cambodia: 36%
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Nonetheless, as the market anticipates potential rate cuts of 0.25%–1% starting as early as July, macroeconomic fears could shift towards a risk-on sentiment.

Speculation Surpasses Fundamentals: Is Trust in BCH Justified?

On July 4, the analytics firm IntoTheBlock reported a 122.45% rise in large whale transactions involving over $100,000 in BCH, amounting to $482 million—a clear indication of accumulation.

Data from Coinglass also reveals that BCH Open Interest has surged to levels not seen since its mid-2024 ascent to $690, increasing by 167% since the mid-April market bottom to reach $503 million.

BCH Open Interest mirrors mid-2024 run. Source: Coinglass.

Speculators are becoming more active in BCH price movements, yet a negative funding rate of -0.009% indicates a rising demand for short positions—traders are anticipating a price drop.

This bearish sentiment reflects weak on-chain fundamentals.

Daily active BCH addresses have reached a six-year low, highlighting that the recent price increase is driven more by speculation than genuine network adoption.

With over 81% of Bitcoin Cash holders currently in profit, this speculative atmosphere heightens the risk of a sell-off and the establishment of a local peak if traders decide to realize their gains.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: Can BCH Maintain Its Market Outperformance?

Although Bitcoin Cash is still far from surpassing Bitcoin in market capitalization, the development of a 15-month falling wedge could pave the way for mid-term outperformance.

BCH is nearing a critical confluence zone where an ascending channel formed since the mid-April market bottom intersects with the wedge’s resistance—a potential breakout scenario.

BCH / USDT 1-week chart, 15-month falling wedge pattern. Source: TradingView, Binance.

In this optimistic scenario, immediate resistance at $530 serves as the gateway to a projected technical target of $990, indicating a 96% upside in alignment with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.

However, momentum indicators suggest caution. The RSI is approaching the overbought level at 65—an increase above 70 could trigger selling pressure as buyers may become exhausted.

Meanwhile, the MACD line—while still positive—displays weak demand as it closely parallels the signal line, increasing the risk of a bearish crossover if bulls lose their grip.

If the breakout does not materialize, a corrective move could see Bitcoin Cash retreat to test lower support levels, with the worst-case scenario indicating a 50% decline toward the mid-April bottom at $246.

More probable support may be located around the 0.5 Fibonacci level—a typical bottom marker for corrections—near $388.

As several leading altcoins anticipate fundamental catalysts—most notably multiple spot ETF decisions expected by year-end—resilience to macroeconomic fears alone may not suffice to keep Bitcoin Cash in the limelight.

Bloomberg ETF analysts have updated their latest odds of approval for crypto spot ETFs with Baskets/Index funds, with #Litecoin still leading the pack at a 90% chance of approval for a spot ETF pic.twitter.com/wl6QZGj6dQ

— Litecoin Foundation (@LTCFoundation) June 11, 2025

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