Bernstein Identifies Bitcoin Low and Establishes 226% Growth Objective for Approach

Bernstein has identified a Bitcoin bottom and established a $450 price target for Strategy stock, representing a 226% increase from Monday’s closing price of $138.20. This assessment originates from analyst Gautam Chhugani at a firm managing nearly $880 billion in assets, indicating that this is not merely a retail sentiment surge. It reflects institutional research marking a definitive stance on the BTC-equity trade.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin Bottom Call: Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein points out the current decline — 44% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,210 — as a cycle bottom, supported by ETF inflows and corporate treasury acquisitions.
• Strategy Upside Target: Bernstein has set a $450 price target for Strategy stock, suggesting a 226% upside from $138.20, underpinned by $56 billion in Bitcoin and cash against $18 billion in total liabilities.
• Institutional Signal: Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $2.2 billion in net inflows over four weeks, turning year-to-date flows positive; FMR, BlackRock, Capital Group, and VanEck now collectively own 23% of Strategy’s STRC preferred shares.

Discover: The best crypto presales gaining institutional momentum right now

Bernstein Bitcoin Bottom Case: What the Data Shows

Bitcoin reached its peak at $126,210 on October 6, 2025. A flash crash on October 10, caused by leveraged liquidations, initiated the downturn, exacerbated by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, yet Bitcoin maintained a support level near $71,000.

Chhugani interprets the 44% decline as a sign of maturation rather than failure: institutional demand has absorbed the selling pressure that, in previous cycles, would have led to 70–80% losses.

BERNSTEIN: MARKET MISREADING CLARITY ACT
Circle shares fell nearly 21% over the past five days, impacting broader crypto stocks.
The decline followed investor concerns regarding a proposed ban on stablecoin yield, stemming from new language in the Clarity Act bill.… pic.twitter.com/qXkglh9Gi5

— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 26, 2026

The ETF data supports this argument. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.2 billion in net inflows during the four weeks leading up to Bernstein’s report, reversing year-to-date outflows and bringing the net figure for 2026 to positive $364 million against a $90 billion asset base.

ETFs currently hold 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply. This represents a structural bid rather than a momentum trade, aligning with the price floor that institutional demand analysis has indicated throughout this correction cycle.

Bernstein’s year-end Bitcoin target is $150,000, dependent on continued institutional purchasing through mid-2026 amid geopolitical challenges. The bottom call is based on capital flows rather than chart patterns.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Strategy’s Bitcoin Treasury: The Math Behind 226% Upside

Strategy possesses 762,099 BTC, with the most recent acquisition being a purchase of 1,031 BTC last week, valued at approximately $51.43 billion.

(Source – StrategyTracker)

The total balance sheet for Bitcoin and cash amounts to $56 billion against $18 billion in total debt, according to Bernstein. Cash reserves alone can cover annual dividend and interest obligations for 25 months. The Bitcoin holdings can cover annual financing costs for roughly 50 years.

The leverage mechanism is clear: Strategy stock magnifies Bitcoin movements because each share represents a claim on a BTC treasury that expands as the company raises capital and acquires more coins.

At $138.20, Bernstein’s $450 target incorporates a Bitcoin recovery towards the $150,000 mark while also valuing the capital-raising mechanism itself — the $42 billion raise divided between Class A common stock and perpetual preferred shares, with $6.24 billion in ATM program capacity still available across a 19-agent sales syndicate.

The STRC preferred share, launched in July 2025, offers an 11.5% annual dividend paid monthly. The thirty-day average daily volume for STRC reached $220 million, a 65% increase over three months, making it the most liquid preferred product in its category. Strategy has declined 57% over six months and 59% over twelve months, reflecting dilution concerns from ongoing equity raises.

The stock has rebounded by 10.9% over the past month. Bernstein believes that the dilution discount is already factored into the price.

Discover: The best crypto presales gaining institutional momentum right now

The post Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Bottom and Sets 226% Upside Target for Strategy appeared first on Cryptonews.