Asia Market Opening: Bitcoin Sees Modest Gains as Stocks Decline Before Fed Interest Rate Decision

Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening before the market opens.

Bitcoin climbed towards $92,000 on Wednesday, while Asian equities declined, as traders prepared for the US Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year and attempted to assess the central bank’s potential hawkish tone following an almost certain reduction.

Stock markets in the region mirrored a weak performance from Wall Street. The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Tuesday, with JPMorgan being the largest contributor to the decline after the bank cautioned about significant expenses in 2026, adding another layer of caution to a market already sensitive to policy indications.

The Fed commenced its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and futures markets continue to indicate a quarter percentage point reduction, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target.

Market snapshot

• Bitcoin: $92,479, up 2.5%
• Ether: $3,308, up 6.4%
• XRP: $2.09, up 1.2%
• Total crypto market cap: $3.24 trillion, up 2.8%

Traders Prepare For Hawkish Messaging Even As A Cut Seems Likely

For cryptocurrency traders, the focus is less on whether the Fed will act this week and more on what Chair Jerome Powell communicates regarding future directions.

Key points as the Fed convenes to deliberate another cut this week:
-whether Powell can garner enough consensus to limit dissent to the same two who opposed the 25 bps cut previously
-how many policymakers express a “soft” dissent through their year-end policy rate in the…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) December 9, 2025

Some market participants perceive political factors influencing the decision-making process. Ruslan Lienkha, head of markets at YouHodler, remarked that an anticipated cut amidst slightly rising inflation “may be influenced more by political factors than by sound economic principles.”

He further stated that he anticipates Powell will attempt to counterbalance the decision with hawkish rhetoric, a combination he believes could exert pressure on risk assets. “A hawkish stance could heighten selling pressure on the already vulnerable US equity markets, which could subsequently have a negative impact on BTC and the wider crypto market,” he noted.

Others are already moderating their year-end Bitcoin expectations. Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, stated, “If Powell indeed delivers a hawkish address, the chances of a Santa rally for Bitcoin diminish.”

He observed that momentum has not favored Bitcoin recently, despite new acquisitions from Michael Saylor’s firm, and mentioned that the market “may well conclude 2025 below $100,000.”

Inflation And Labor Data Contribute To Uncertainty Over Policy Direction

The macroeconomic environment is not providing much clarity. Fed officials have conveyed mixed signals, with some cautioning that inflation could accelerate again while others express greater concern about the labor market.

A Labor Department report released on Tuesday indicated that job openings increased only slightly in October and hiring remained subdued, while a separate survey from the National Federation of Independent Business suggested plans for new hiring in the upcoming months.

This tension has shifted more focus onto the Fed’s dot plot, its economic forecasts, and every statement from Powell’s press conference. Fluctuations around rate decisions have become a primary driver of equity volatility over the past six weeks, often overshadowing discussions about an AI bubble or the effects of President Donald Trump’s trade policies on corporate earnings and risk sentiment.

Slower Easing Path Threatens Liquidity Trade That Crypto Relies On

Market pricing indicates a cooling of expectations. Traders now anticipate approximately two cuts in 2026 following a likely quarter-point reduction on Wednesday, a shift from the more optimistic outlooks that circulated just weeks ago.

For Bitcoin and other digital currencies, a slower easing trajectory can result in tighter dollar liquidity and increased pressure on the “liquidity trade” that previously supported rallies.

Personnel changes at the Fed are also part of the equation. Kevin Hassett, considered a leading candidate in Trump’s search to replace Powell, stated at an event on Tuesday that he sees potential for substantial rate reductions, even beyond a single quarter-point adjustment.

His remarks fueled speculation that the long-term policy stance could change if the White House alters the central bank’s leadership in 2026.

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