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Cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQC) could emerge as soon as 2030, threatening the security of up to 10 million BTC, with around 6.26 million BTC being particularly at risk. In light of this, the Bitcoin community is investigating measures to mitigate this possible danger.
A report from Chaincode indicates that CRQCs in the near future could undermine the cryptographic underpinnings of Bitcoin. The funds most at risk are those associated with reused addresses and those with exposed public keys, including P2PK, P2MS, and Taproot (P2TR). An estimated 4 to 10 million BTC could be endangered, encompassing institutional assets, older addresses, and likely lost coins.
Conversely, the quantum threat to mining is less severe due to the constraints of Grover’s algorithm and the absence of effective parallelism. Nonetheless, there is a concern regarding mining centralization and network instability if powerful quantum miners come to dominate.
In response, the Bitcoin community is considering the adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) utilizing algorithms such as SPHINCS+, FALCON, and CRYSTALS-Dilithium. The primary proposals include:
- BIP-360 (P2QRH), a hybrid approach that employs hashes of PQC keys in place of public keys to lessen vulnerability.
- BIP-347 (OP_CAT), which supports Lamport signatures by reinstating the previously disabled OP_CAT opcode.
- OP_SPHINCS, which introduces a specific opcode for SPHINCS signatures.
All these proposals are still in preliminary phases and would necessitate at least one or two soft forks.
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The report presents two strategies for implementation:
- Short-term (~2 years): research, minimal protective measures, and the migration of at-risk UTXOs.
- Long-term (~7 years): a comprehensive architectural redesign involving large-scale migration and optimized PQC solutions.
In an ideal scenario, transferring 190 million UTXOs could take approximately 76 days at full block capacity, but realistic projections at 25% capacity range from 305 to 568 days.
A significant unresolved issue is how to handle vulnerable funds whose owners cannot be contacted. Two potential approaches are:
- Burn — render the funds permanently inaccessible, thereby safeguarding the network from theft.
- Steal — take no action, adhering to the principle of non-intervention but risking widespread theft.
Proponents of burning stress the importance of protecting property rights and preventing arbitrary redistribution of wealth, while critics view it as an act of confiscation.
In 2024, Massimiliano Sala, Full Professor at the Department of Mathematics at the University of Trento, released a report indicating that all blockchain networks utilizing public key cryptography may be susceptible to quantum computers capable of compromising them through brute-force mathematical techniques.
Сообщение About 6.26 Million BTC at Risk of Quantum Computer Hacking появились сначала на CoinsPaid Media.
