Analyst Indicates Bitcoin’s “Max-Pain” Range Lies Between $73K and $84K

Bitcoin might still experience further declines before reaching a genuine cycle bottom, as stated by André Dragosch, the European head of research at Bitwise.

Key Takeaways:

• According to Bitwise analyst André Dragosch, Bitcoin’s “max-pain” zone is identified between $73K and $84K.
• Dragosch refers to this range as “fire sale” territory, cautioning that it could signify a complete cycle reset as traders speculate on where capitulation will occur.
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan contends that the current downturn is merely short-term noise and that Bitcoin’s long-term value remains unaffected.

In a recent update on X, Dragosch indicated that the market’s “max max pain” level is likely between $84,000, which is the average cost basis of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, and $73,000, the price at which Strategy acquired its latest tranche of Bitcoin.

“I believe max max pain is reached the moment we hit either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k,” Dragosch noted, adding that the ultimate bottom will “very likely” form somewhere in between.

Analyst Indicates Bitcoin Approaching ‘Fire Sale’ Reset Zone Following Significant Pullback

The analyst characterized these levels as “fire sale prices” that reflect a complete market reset rather than typical volatility. His post quickly gained attention, amassing over 14,000 views.

This commentary comes as traders discuss where Bitcoin’s capitulation point might be following its decline from the October peak near $125,000.

While some market participants suggest that institutional involvement may mitigate a more severe downturn, others argue that the recent drop has not yet fully eliminated leveraged positions.

One trader remarked that major institutions “won’t permit” Bitcoin to decline sufficiently to cause distress to their clients, while another claimed that sellers are already having difficulty pushing the price lower, indicating a potential rebound could occur swiftly on any favorable catalyst.

This makes no sense. Max pain is individual. The charts and cycles are of no use. It could be 60K, 50K or whatever number. However, the major institutions won’t allow that to happen, because they have too many clients that will create max pain for them.

— Dr. T (@RealFastMD) November 20, 2025

Dragosch’s analysis underscores how closely investors are monitoring the cost bases of significant market players as sentiment deteriorates.

With Bitcoin positioned in a delicate zone, analysts suggest that the $73K–$84K range could become a pivotal battleground for determining the next phase of the cycle.

As previously reported, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has encouraged investors to look beyond Bitcoin’s sharp decline, asserting that the cryptocurrency’s long-term value is largely independent of its recent drop and more about the service it offers.

Hougan dismissed worries about a more profound downturn, stating that the current decline, approximately 27.5% from Bitcoin’s October all-time high, is “short-term noise.”

“In our increasingly digital age, with governments accumulating more and more debt, I anticipate that many more individuals will seek its service in the future,” Hougan concluded.

Bitcoin Faces Narrow Range as Fed Rate Cuts Become Uncertain

Bitcoin may remain confined between $60,000 and $80,000 until the end of December if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, according to recent analysis from XWIN Research Japan.

With expectations for rate cuts plummeting from over 70% to as low as 40–50%, liquidity has diminished in risk markets, pushing Bitcoin below $90,000 and exerting pressure on leveraged positions.

The December meeting is particularly unclear after the US government shutdown delayed two months of labor data, leaving policymakers with limited insight.

Analysts indicate that a cautious Fed, still grappling with inflation near 3%, would likely uphold tight conditions, which historically have a significant impact on equities and crypto.

If no rate cut occurs, XWIN anticipates the market will remain range-bound, with risk appetite subdued until macroeconomic clarity is restored.

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