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Markets are preparing for the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with analysts cautioning that the inflation figures could influence whether risk assets experience a year-end rally or encounter renewed challenges.
Key Takeaways:
- Markets are closely monitoring the CPI release, as it may affect expectations for rate cuts and determine the trajectory of risk assets heading into year-end.
- Bitcoin is trading within a range near $85K, as mixed US macroeconomic data keeps risk appetite subdued.
- ETF inflows and decreasing leverage indicate that buyers are starting to protect the $85K mark despite the prevailing caution.
“Jerome Powell recently mentioned that rates are at favorable levels to wait and assess the data,” crypto analyst Mister Crypto stated in a recent post on X.
He indicated that a CPI reading higher than anticipated would likely diminish expectations for rate cuts, impacting both equities and digital assets negatively. Conversely, a softer reading might renew hopes for looser monetary policy and spark a rally as the year closes.
Bitcoin Stalls Near $85K as Risk-Off Sentiment Caps Upside, Analyst Says
Bitcoin approaches the data release on unstable ground. The leading cryptocurrency fell approximately 2% on Tuesday to about $85,300 and has oscillated between $85,000 and $90,000 throughout the week.
Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, noted that the inability to rise higher reflects a broader risk-off sentiment fueled by mixed US macroeconomic signals.
Recent data has provided little clarity. Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, unemployment ticked up, and S&P Global PMI readings fell short of forecasts.
“The mixed signals have maintained bearish momentum and restricted any immediate upward response,” Hasn remarked.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin seems to be establishing tentative support around the $85,000 level. Hasn observed early signs of bargain hunting, with dip buyers cautiously entering after weeks of selling pressure.
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Today’s
CPI release is significant.
Jerome Powell recently indicated that rates are at appropriate levels to pause and analyze the data.
A CPI reading higher than expected today would be detrimental for markets, as it would decrease the likelihood of future rate cuts.
On the other hand, a lower than anticipated print… pic.twitter.com/3GIgZ22wxb— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 18, 2025
On-chain data from BGeometrics supports this perspective, showing small increases in whale wallets and retail-sized holders possessing between 1 and 100 BTC.
Simultaneously, addresses holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have slightly decreased, indicating a slowdown in the intense whale distribution observed in November.
ETF flows provide an additional layer of support. Data from SoSo Value reveals that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $450 million in inflows on Tuesday, even as activity in the futures market cooled.
Derivatives data suggests a continued decline in speculative activity. CoinGlass reports that crypto futures open interest has dropped by approximately $11 billion over the past week, approaching its lowest level since June.
With leverage being eliminated and spot demand stabilizing, Hasn remarked that the $85,000 range is beginning to appear less like a trap and more like a level that buyers are prepared to defend.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Selling May Be Approaching Its Conclusion: K33
Bitcoin has experienced persistent sell-side pressure from long-term holders since 2024, but this trend may be nearing its limit, according to a recent report from research and brokerage firm K33.
The firm estimates that approximately 1.6 million BTC, valued at around $138 billion, has re-entered circulation over the last two years as early investors took profits.
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde stated that the magnitude of these movements indicates intentional selling rather than technical factors such as wallet consolidation or transfers related to ETFs.
The report highlights that 2024 and 2025 are among the largest years on record for long-term supply reactivation, driven not by speculation but by direct selling into deeper institutional liquidity.
The post Analyst Says CPI Print Is Make-or-Break Moment for Year-End Rally appeared first on Cryptonews.
