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Trader Tony “The Bull” Severino suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish market may be nearing a critical juncture, indicating that the cryptocurrency could either experience a parabolic surge or conclude its current cycle within the next 100 days.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s volatility has reached historic lows, with Bollinger Bands indicating a significant breakout or breakdown may occur within the next 100 days.
- Analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino cautions about possible “head fakes” prior to a genuine movement.
- Others argue that Bitcoin’s extending market cycles imply the bull run may still have potential for growth.
In an analysis posted on X on Wednesday, Severino pointed out the Bollinger Bands indicator, a traditional tool for measuring volatility, which has achieved unprecedented “tightness” on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance as Volatility Tightens, Analyst Warns
Historically, such compressions have preceded significant price movements in either direction.
“Currently, BTCUSD has not managed to break out above the upper band with strength,” Severino noted.
“Based on previous local consolidation ranges, it may take over 100 days to achieve a valid breakout — or breakdown, should BTC decline instead.”
The Bollinger Bands assess volatility by plotting standard deviations above and below a moving average. When the bands contract, it indicates diminished volatility, a scenario often followed by substantial directional shifts.
Severino, however, warned that “head fakes,” or false breakouts before a genuine movement, are frequent in such situations.
Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands recently hit record tightness
Currently, BTCUSD has not managed to break out above the upper band with strength
Based on previous local consolidation ranges, it may take over 100 days to achieve a valid breakout (or breakdown, should BTC decline… pic.twitter.com/uCpcxvKzX1— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) October 8, 2025
“Expanding from a squeeze setup like this can lead to head fakes. We may have witnessed one with the recent move above $126,000, and another dip could occur before a genuine breakout higher,” he cautioned.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $122,700, slightly down from its recent all-time high. Analysts are debating whether the bull market, which commenced in early 2023, has entered its final phase or is gearing up for a new period of price discovery.
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Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have concluded with sharp, “blow-off” tops approximately 18 months after halving events, a timeline that suggests late 2025.
However, as analyst Rekt Capital pointed out last month, BTC’s market cycles are lengthening, indicating this rally may still have potential to extend.
“It’s improbable that Bitcoin has already peaked, as that would make this one of the shortest cycles ever,” Rekt Capital stated, adding that Bitcoin might soon transition into a “price discovery uptrend.”
#BTC
Price Discovery Correction 2 is over
Ultimately, it was indeed shallower but took roughly the same amount of time to resolve as in previous cycles (2017, 2021)
Now, Bitcoin is on the verge of entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/YdXQqHd82w pic.twitter.com/n7xvcr8aTo— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2025
Severino, however, believes the upcoming months will be crucial. “This has the potential to propel Bitcoin into a parabolic phase — or conclude the three-year bull rally,” he stated.
Bitcoin Surges Past $125K, Matching Gold’s Safe-Haven Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC), often referred to as “digital gold,” has reflected gold’s recent increase, surpassing $125,000 over the weekend in its strongest October rally on record.
The leading cryptocurrency is attracting billions in ETF inflows, and JPMorgan analysts now anticipate BTC could reach $165,000 by year-end if the momentum persists.
“The more institutional capital witnesses Bitcoin returning toward all-time highs after dips, the more at ease they will feel as long-term holders,” stated Timot Lamarre, Head of Market Research at Unchained, a Bitcoin-native financial services firm managing over $11 billion in assets.
“If debasement is perceived as structural rather than temporary, Bitcoin could be entering its next significant revaluation phase.”
As previously reported, increasing fiscal uncertainty in major economies is driving a shift toward Bitcoin, gold, and silver, as investors prepare for further currency debasement.
The so-called “debasement trade” has gained momentum amid rising national debts and political instability, prompting a widespread retreat from fiat assets.
The post Analyst: Bitcoin Could Turn Parabolic or End Bull Run Within 100 Days appeared first on Cryptonews.
