Analysis Suggests Bitcoin Price ‘Final’ Bear Market Low Around $55,000

Bitcoin may not have reached its true capitulation point yet. On-chain analytics company CryptoQuant is cautioning that the actual bear market floor could be closer to $55,000, a figure lower than many bullish investors are willing to acknowledge.

If their analysis is accurate, the market still has some discomfort to endure before a solid structural base can be established. Weak hands may not have been entirely shaken out. Until that final reset occurs, labeling this as the definitive bottom could be somewhat hasty.

Key Takeaways

• CryptoQuant’s data indicates that the “ultimate” bear market bottom is around $55,000 based on realized price models.
• On February 5, Bitcoin experienced $5.4 billion in realized losses, the highest amount since March 2023.
• Important valuation indicators such as MVRV and NUPL have yet to reach historical capitulation levels.

Is The Selling Finally Over?

CryptoQuant asserts that we remain in a typical bear phase, rather than the extreme panic zone that typically signifies once-in-a-cycle buying opportunities. They believe that bottoms are not formed by single candles but are lengthy, chaotic processes that require time to develop.

Meanwhile, price movements continue to decline. ETF outflows are accumulating, and Bitcoin’s drop below $66,000 has traders feeling anxious. However, according to the data, we have not yet witnessed the level of pain that usually resets the market.

Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin’s price is currently trading over 25% above its realized price, a threshold that has historically served as robust support.

In previous cycles, such as in 2018 and during the FTX collapse, Bitcoin reached its bottom 24% to 30% below the realized price. If this trend repeats, the $55,000 range becomes a critical area to monitor.

Realized Losses And Valuation Metrics

The most recent CryptoQuant data reveals significant underlying damage.

On February 5, Bitcoin holders recorded $5.4 billion in daily losses as the price fell 14% to $62,000, marking the largest single-day loss since March 2023.

Despite these figures, key valuation metrics have not yet indicated a complete bottom.

The MVRV ratio has not entered the extreme undervalued territory typically seen at cycle lows. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the deep unrealized loss levels that usually signify capitulation.

Source: CryptoQuant

Long-term holders present a similar narrative. Currently, many are selling around breakeven. In previous bear market bottoms, they experienced losses of 30% to 40%.

If historical patterns hold true, the final phase of capitulation may necessitate a more profound reset before a sustainable floor is established. Until that time, patience may be more beneficial than premature assertions of a bottom.

If Bitcoin Needs Another Reset, Bitcoin Hyper Does Not

When analysts discuss “true capitulation,” it signifies one thing: Bitcoin may remain slow and heavy for longer than bullish investors anticipate.

This is not the setting for significant base-layer movements.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is designed for momentum regardless of Bitcoin’s fluctuations. This Bitcoin-centric Layer-2, utilizing Solana technology, enhances speed, reduces fees, and provides genuine on-chain utility without compromising Bitcoin’s core security.

Bitcoin Hyper is already gaining momentum. The presale has raised over $31 million to date, with $HYPER priced at $0.0136751 before the next increase, along with staking rewards of up to 37%.

If Bitcoin requires additional time to reach its bottom, Bitcoin Hyper is well-positioned to progress during this period.

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