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Michael Terpin cautions that Bitcoin may fall back to the $40,000 range before experiencing a genuine recovery.
Terpin contended that bitcoin’s post-halving surge adhered to its usual trajectory and indicates that history implies the market may still experience another period of distress.
Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 (CoinDesk)
What to know:
- Michael Terpin states that the peak of the bull market occurred in the fourth quarter following the halving, consistent with previous cycles.
- While he considers the predictions of $80,000 and $60,000 lows as premature, he acknowledges the possibility for bitcoin to revisit the $50,000s or even the $40,000s in a delicate market.
The present condition of the cryptocurrency market is evolving almost precisely in accordance with historical trends, as per Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures.
This is the reason he expressed skepticism towards recent overly optimistic predictions regarding the market bottom. “When individuals believed the bottom would be at $80,000 and that it would merely be a six-week bear market, that appears absurd to me,” Terpin remarked at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.
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Forecasts predicting that bitcoin would reach a low of $60,000 and then quickly resume its upward trajectory seemed to him to be hasty. “That also appears a bit too early.”
Although he refrained from predicting another year-long downturn, Terpin is of the opinion that the market is likely to encounter “one more point of distress” in what he describes as a fragile situation. He posits that bitcoin could return to levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s prior to establishing a sustainable bottom.
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The halving plays a crucial role in bitcoin’s framework as it reduces the reward miners obtain for validating transactions by half approximately every four years, thereby lowering the rate at which new coins are produced.
This built-in supply shock enhances bitcoin’s scarcity, an essential aspect of its value proposition, and has historically preceded significant bull markets as diminished new supply meets steady or increasing demand.
The halving mechanism gradually decreases bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately limiting total supply to 21 million coins and reinforcing its status as digital gold.
"We are precisely where we ought to be,” Terpin maintained, referencing the well-established four-year cycle centered around Bitcoin’s halving events.
One of the most consistent features of previous cycles has been the approximate timing of the bubble peak and the subsequent decline, he asserted.
“The bull market peaked in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he remarks, noting that the speculative blow-off phase generally lasts between nine to eleven months. “This time it lasted eleven months.”
Terpin draws a close comparison to the last cycle. “The peaks, the bubble burst, occurred on Nov. 10, 2021,” he observes. “The troughs were shortly after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly one year later.”
Even the broader four-year pattern has exhibited remarkable consistency. One complete cycle deviated by merely three days from a precise four-year interval, while the inaugural halving cycle was only a few weeks off a year in terms of its peak-to-trough configuration, as noted by Terpin.
Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
