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Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Oct. 8, hitting an intraday low near $80,800, despite trader expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady in October.
The September FOMC minutes, released on Oct. 7, indicated that most participants viewed another rate increase by year-end as probable, with future decisions left dependent on incoming data.
December remains an expectation inferred from the current policy trajectory, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks on Oct. 8 illustrated how far that path extends.
A pause merely delays the next hike
Waller cited futures pricing as of Oct. 7, which assigned an 85% probability to at least one rate hike by December. The same pricing indicated nearly an 80% chance of at least two hikes by March 2027 and a 33% chance of three or more.
These probabilities are cumulative and market-implied. Waller added that further hikes remain probable if data evolve as expected, noting that the Fed can skip meetings. An October hold simply pushes the next increase later on the calendar, while the path into 2027 remains steep.
On Oct. 8, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305%, and the 2-year yield was at 4.821%, with Brent crude oil trading at $104.87. Oil prices keep inflation risks alive, and higher yields maintain an elevated cost of capital for risk assets, even if the Fed skips a meeting.
A Glassnode report from Oct. 7 found that combined spot-exchange and US Bitcoin spot ETF volume averaged near $6.8 billion per day, which is below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new money from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while the realized cap rose by $12.8 billion over 30 days, representing less than 40% of the total.
The previous upward move relied on existing capital repricing coins, and the buying depth available to absorb selling pressure was shallow.
As of press time, CoinGlass recorded over $1 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $930 million tied to long positions.
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Bitcoin’s $81,000 zone gives way
A day earlier, Glassnode flagged a modeled cluster of long liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300, along with large Binance bids around $81,000 to $81,250.
These modeled zones indicate where market positioning was concentrated, and the price low confirms that these levels were breached. Liquidations amplified the move, and macro forces acting as the initiating cause is a supported interpretation. Proving this sequence would require intraday spot-flow and liquidation data.
If buyers rebuild above the $85,500 reclaim threshold with higher spot volume, Bitcoin will encounter a concentration of sell orders at $86,500 to $86,750.
Beyond that level sits Glassnode’s largest one-year cluster of liquidations above the current price, ranging from $87,100 to $95,900, with the heaviest concentration near $92,000. A reclaim in this zone could force short covering and turn a Fed pause into a catalyst.
If buyers fail to rebuild, Glassnode’s next modeled liquidation cluster sits near $75,000, serving as a reference level for downside risk. Upcoming macro events include the September CPI data on Oct. 14, the FOMC meeting on Oct. 27-28, and the Dec. 8-9 meeting.
An October pause delays the next rate hike, but Bitcoin must hold its structural integrity through the CPI release and two Fed meetings on a thin base of buyers.
The post Bitcoin’s Drop Below $81,000 Highlights Why a Fed Pause May Not Rescue the Crypto Market appeared first on CryptoSlate.
