Bitcoin power law framework indicates a $30,000 support level and a $1 million upside potential in this cycle.

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Giovanni Santostasi’s Bitcoin Power Law model indicates that Bitcoin’s price is unlikely to dip below $30,000 again, establishing a baseline for future valuations. The model illustrates that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is expected to ascend, with its current ‘fair price’ estimated at $86,339 and a possible peak at $332,543.

As shown in the charts from Bitbo, the model employs linear regression to define support and resistance bands, which have historically encompassed Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. The support band, based on historical price data, indicates a lower limit that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below, while the resistance band signifies an upper limit.

The model anticipates that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 per coin prior to 2028 and will not fall below this threshold after that year. Additionally, it predicts that Bitcoin could achieve $1,000,000 between 2028 and 2037 and sustain this value thereafter.

The foundation of the model is based on the power law distribution, a statistical correlation where one variable changes as the power of another. This distribution has been noted in various natural occurrences and financial markets, offering a solid framework for long-term price forecasts. The application of the power-law model to Bitcoin suggests a steady upward trajectory, consistent with the asset’s historical performance despite its volatility.

Critics of the model contend that it is heavily reliant on historical data, which may not fully account for future market dynamics or unexpected events. They warn that while the model presents a structured method for interpreting Bitcoin’s price movements, it should not be regarded as a definitive predictor of future prices. Nevertheless, the Power Law model provides an intriguing viewpoint on Bitcoin’s potential expansion, reinforcing the conviction among some analysts that Bitcoin’s price will continue to increase over the long term.

In contrast to the Stock-to-Flow model, the Power Law has never been disproven. If this trend persists, the fair price at the next halving is projected to be approximately $290,000 in 2028.

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