Bitcoin poised to match its most pessimistic phase ever – focus shifts to a single price point.

The scoop: Bitcoin is on track for a fifth consecutive monthly decline if February concludes negatively, marking its longest losing streak since 2018, while spot ETF flows remain consistently negative, highlighting a new reality: post-ETF, BTC is behaving like a rates-and-risk asset. If it does not recover in March and regain $80k, it will match its most challenging period ever.

Bitcoin has recorded losses in each of the last four months, and February is currently negative midway through, setting the stage for a fifth consecutive monthly downturn.

This scenario would signify Bitcoin’s longest monthly losing streak in six years, a situation that is increasingly viewed as a macro stress test for the post-ETF market framework.

Data indicates that from October 2025 to January 2026, each month ended in the red, with November experiencing the most significant loss during that period.

February began near $78,626 before fluctuating in the high $60,000s around the middle of the month.

As of the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $68,800, roughly 44–45% below the October peak of $126,000, and down 12.6% for the month.

The all-time record for monthly drawdowns stands at six months from January 2017 to August 2018. Bitcoin would match that record if March also concludes negatively.

Bitcoin monthly returns (Source: Coinglass)

Rates expectations and ETF flows

The drawdown coincided with a reassessment of rates expectations that has kept risk assets sensitive to each incremental shift in the “higher for longer” trajectory, according to Ned Davis Research data referenced by Business Insider.

Fed funds futures continue to suggest a hold into March 2026, with probabilities heavily favoring no change.

A more persistent policy path tends to elevate the threshold for duration-like trades, and Bitcoin’s recent correlation profile has resulted in it being traded as a macro beta expression in numerous portfolios, especially when equity volatility increases.

This macro dynamic is now being reinforced by the ETF structure itself.

Recent trading sessions for spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown a negative skew, with approximately $2 billion in net outflows over the past three weeks and several single-day totals in the hundreds of millions.

Bitcoin ETF flows (Source: Farside)

In this environment, downside pressure can persist without a crypto-specific catalyst if redemptions and risk-parity-style de-risking continue to exert pressure on the market.

On-chain cost basis defines key levels

Glassnode’s latest on-chain analysis frames the selloff as a tightening contest between overhead supply and cost-basis support.

The firm noted that the True Market Mean near $80,200 has acted as overhead resistance, while the Realized Price near $55,800 has historically served as confirmable “re-engagement” territory during deeper corrections.

Between these two points, Glassnode identifies a dense cost-basis zone around $66,900–$70,600, a range that has acted as a near-term reference for whether holders are defending aggregate entry points or capitulating into lower-liquidity areas.

These levels provide a straightforward forward corridor for the next one to three months as they align with what other market analyses are already monitoring.

I have suggested multiple times that the likely market bottom for this cycle is around $49,000, and the sooner Bitcoin reaches that level, the more probable it is to gradually rise back into the 2028 halving.

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Barron’s identified a $55,000–$60,000 range as a plausible volatility zone, highlighting the convergence of the 200-day moving average near $58,000 and an estimated average purchase price around $56,000 as potential anchors if selling accelerates.

In other words, from approximately $68,800, the market is weighing a path back toward the $80,200 “mean” area versus a decline toward the $55,800 realized-price region.

Each movement represents a high-teens percentage swing.

Path (next 4–12 weeks)	What would need to change	Levels in focus (sources)	Range framing
Stabilization and range trade	Outflows slow, macro does not tighten further, cost-basis buyers defend entries	$66,900–$70,600 support; ~$80,200 overhead (Glassnode)	~$65,000–$82,000 (Glassnode)
Deeper deleveraging	Cost-basis band fails, risk-off persists, forced selling expands	$60,000 retest, then ~$55,800 realized price (Glassnode); $55,000–$60,000 zone (Barron’s)	~$55,000–$60,000, with lower stress tails discussed below
Reclaim	Macro tone eases and inflows return, price recaptures overhead supply	Reclaim ~$80,200 (Glassnode)	~$80,000–$95,000+ (level-dependent)

The downside scenarios being discussed are also explicitly linked to macro factors.

Ned Davis Research, via Business Insider, outlined a “crypto winter” stress scenario using historical bear-market averages (approximately 84% drawdowns over about 225 days), which would position Bitcoin near $31,000 if history were to repeat itself at the extreme.

A separate report from Business Insider cited a Zacks strategist projecting a $40,000 trajectory over three to six months, connecting the scenario to liquidity conditions and the duration of previous winter periods.

These are not consensus targets, but they serve as boundary markers for how far macro-driven de-risking can extend when flows and positioning are skewed.

For the remainder of February, the calendar itself becomes the catalyst.

A negative monthly close would formalize a five-month streak of declines and occur at a time when ETF flow persistence, on-chain cost-basis defense, and fed-funds pricing all indicate Bitcoin trading as a rates-and-risk asset rather than a standalone idiosyncratic market.

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