Bitcoin inflows to Binance drop to 5,700 BTC, falling below 50% of the monthly average since 2020.

Binance’s monthly Bitcoin (BTC) inflows have decreased to 5,700 BTC, which is less than half of the 12,000 BTC average noted since 2020 and represents 25% of the 24,000 BTC that entered the exchange during the FTX crisis in late 2022, as reported by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost in a June 24 note.

Data from Darkfost indicated that every significant deposit increase in the current cycle coincided with a local price peak. Net inflows exceeded 17,000 BTC during last August’s $69,000 correction and again surpassed 20,000 BTC in March when Bitcoin first reached six figures.

Each surge preceded a short-term decline, highlighting Binance’s function as the platform where holders convert latent selling intentions into market supply.

In contrast, the recent figure of 5,700 BTC comes as Bitcoin remains stable above $105,000, with volatility near its lowest levels of the year. This amount is also approximately 30% of the 13,200 BTC that transferred to Binance the week Bitcoin first exceeded $100,000 in December 2024.

Darkfost suggests that this decline indicates a “holding phase” where both retail investors and larger groups retain coins off the exchange, thereby alleviating immediate sell pressure. Typically, traders transfer Bitcoin to exchanges when they are preparing to sell. A decrease in deposits suggests fewer coins are ready for imminent liquidation.

When supply on order books diminishes while demand remains, upward momentum becomes more feasible, a trend that Glassnode also noted in May when it reported “Binance sell-pressure cooling off” during Bitcoin’s ascent to $104,000.

Context within broader exchange behavior

Binance accounts for the largest spot volume among centralized exchanges, averaging 37% of the monthly centralized exchange trading volumes this year, according to The Block data.

Consequently, the exchange’s deposit trend acts as an indicator of the overall market intent to liquidate.

The analyst opted for inflows instead of outflows to eliminate noise from transfers related to custodial adjustments or exchange wallets. An increase in deposits necessitates an active decision to sell, while withdrawals may indicate preferences for storage.

Darkfost applied a monthly mean to smooth the series and reduce distortions from macroeconomic events, such as the early June escalation between Israel and Iran. Even after this adjustment, the latest figure represents the lowest inflow level recorded in over four years of data.

Darkfost warned that macroeconomic uncertainty and low liquidity could still disrupt prices if a shock triggers new waves of deposits. He advised monitoring any increase toward or above the long-term 12,000 BTC average as a potential signal of renewed distribution.

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