862,000 jobs lost, inflation rate decreased, and Bitcoin behaves similarly to bonds – What might Satoshi think?

Bitcoin is now trading similarly to a rates product as real yields become the new “gravity”

Earlier this month, the macroeconomic landscape experienced a notable shift. The record of last year’s employment levels was significantly altered, and markets reacted to this update as if it were new information to act upon.

Just two days later, inflation figures showed a decline in the headline rate, yields fluctuated, and Bitcoin followed the same cross-asset pattern that had previously been associated with interest rates and major stock indices.

Historically, Bitcoin responded to crypto-specific news: a major corporation acquiring BTC, the introduction of a new product, or rumors regarding regulation. However, in 2026, the price appears to first respond to the same macroeconomic data that influences bonds and large equity indices.

The rationale behind this is straightforward: Bitcoin is now integrated into the global risk framework, and when markets adjust interest rates, they also adjust Bitcoin’s valuation.

On February 11, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its annual benchmark revision to payroll figures. This revision decreased last year’s jobs baseline, with the March 2025 figure revised down by 862,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This adjustment significantly altered a substantial portion of the recent labor narrative in one fell swoop.

Two days later, January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. Headline inflation increased by 0.2% month over month and slowed to 2.4% year over year, while core inflation remained stronger than the headline figure, with shelter continuing to be a significant factor.

Surrounding this cooler CPI report, global markets noted a decrease in yields, and Bitcoin surged nearly 5% to over $69,000, demonstrating a synchronized response that exemplifies the new paradigm.

When combined, these elements form the new crypto macro framework. Labor data and inflation influence expectations for the Federal Reserve, markets convert that into rate pricing, and the primary factor impacting Bitcoin is the movement in real yields. This can be conceptualized as a cycle that recurs weekly: jobs, CPI, Fed pricing, and real yields.

The day the jobs market transformed

Many perceive job shocks as layoffs or disappointing payroll reports. This instance was different: the economy continued to progress through January and February, while the assessment of last year’s job levels was updated using a more reliable source of records.

Benchmark revisions hold more significance than many realize, as they alter the foundational data upon which subsequent monthly reports are built. A typical monthly payroll report reflects what occurred in the most recent timeframe. In contrast, a benchmark revision resets the baseline for numerous months of estimates, which can change the entire interpretation of momentum.

Markets are concerned with this because a softer jobs trajectory alters the narrative of growth and overheating. Growth expectations influence policy expectations, which in turn affect yields.

Bitcoin responds because yields act as a gravitational force for all risk assets.

The crypto macro framework, explained as a chain

The macro framework is most easily understood as a sequence of translations, typically following the same order.

It begins with labor, encompassing headline payroll growth and the less glamorous revision process that can modify historical records.

Next, it transitions to inflation, where CPI is released on schedule and serves as a synchronized moment of volatility across various assets.

From there, it progresses into policy expectations, where markets continuously interpret data into an implied trajectory for the Fed.

The chain concludes with transmission, where real yields and broader liquidity conditions either tighten or loosen financial conditions for all assets traded with risk appetite, including Bitcoin.

In practice, this chain operates because most investors, including those trading crypto, evaluate assets through the lens of discount rates. When the market anticipates a lower discount rate in the future, risk assets are typically re-rated higher. Conversely, when a higher discount rate is expected, the opposite occurs.

Over time, the four translations—jobs, CPI, Fed pricing, and real yields—reappear consistently, with Bitcoin increasingly positioned at the end of the chain.

Layer 1: the data revision that impacts like a shock

The BLS payroll figure is derived from a large employer survey. Surveys are the quickest and simplest method to gather extensive information, but they are merely estimates. Therefore, once a year, the BLS aligns the survey with administrative records that encompass a larger workforce, and this annual alignment constitutes the benchmark revision.

This is why the figure of 862,000 had such a significant impact. It lowered the employment level below market expectations and altered the implied trajectory of job growth across several months, as a lower baseline modifies the slope of the series.

Traders had been reacting to monthly payroll headlines based on one underlying baseline; the revision necessitated a rapid reassessment of the actual tightness of the labor market. The adjustment occurs all at once because it affects the broader historical record rather than just a single month.

A monthly payroll surprise can quickly diminish when subsequent reports change direction. However, a benchmark revision alters the foundation and reshapes how markets interpret the following releases. This adjustment rapidly influences rate expectations since the Fed’s response is contingent on both labor tightness and inflation.

Layer 2: CPI as the catalyst, with shelter being the overlooked component

CPI days influence markets because CPI directly correlates with the Fed’s inflation mandate and the trajectory of policy rates. When CPI is released, markets revise their predictions regarding future inflation and subsequently translate that into rate pricing.

In January, headline inflation decelerated to 2.4% year over year following a 0.2% monthly increase. Core inflation remained stronger than the headline figure, and shelter continued to be significant due to its substantial weight in CPI and its tendency to adjust slowly compared to many other categories.

Energy prices decreased overall during the month, which helped keep headline inflation lower than it might have been otherwise.

Shelter is important because it typically adjusts with a delay, which can maintain inflation measures even when more volatile categories cool. This creates a common pattern on CPI days. The initial move reacts to the headline and the immediate surprise against expectations.

The subsequent move analyzes the composition, particularly anything that alters the perception of how persistent inflation appears.

Bitcoin often follows that same intraday pattern because it operates within the same cross-asset environment.

Layer 3: where the Fed becomes a probability

The Federal Reserve determines the policy rate during meetings, but markets trade daily. The connection between these two realms is the interest-rate futures curve, which continuously incorporates the market’s best estimate of future Fed decisions.

A straightforward way to observe this translation is through the CME FedWatch tool, which reflects market-implied probabilities for future rate outcomes based on fed funds futures pricing. It provides a clear snapshot of how probabilities shift in response to CPI, jobs data, and Fed communications.

Chart illustrating the target rate probabilities for the Fed meeting in March as of February 19, 2026 (Source: CME FedWatch)

Weaker labor data diminishes the perception of overheating, while lower inflation alleviates concerns about persistent price pressures. These factors guide the market toward a future path of easier policy, whether that entails earlier cuts, more cuts, or a slower pace of tightening financial conditions.

This repricing can occur within minutes as futures markets adjust instantaneously, and these updates quickly influence Treasury yields.

This is significant for Bitcoin because FedWatch probabilities serve as a pricing summary derived from futures. Therefore, when these probabilities shift, it indicates that capital has moved accordingly.

Layer 4: the lever Bitcoin responds to most, real yields

Nominal yields represent the interest rates quoted on Treasuries. Real yields adjust these rates for inflation expectations. In market terms, real yields signify the actual return available on safe assets over time.

Graph depicting the real yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond from February 18, 2025, to February 19, 2026 (Source: St. Louis Fed)

Real yields are crucial for Bitcoin as they establish the opportunity cost for holding assets that provide volatility and potential upside rather than a guaranteed real return.

When real yields increase, safe assets become more appealing in real terms, necessitating that risk assets offer greater compensation to remain competitive. Conversely, when real yields decrease, the threshold lowers, allowing risk assets to be re-rated higher based on the same cash-flow assumptions or, in Bitcoin’s case, on the same scarcity and adoption expectations.

Bitcoin often reacts swiftly in this context because it trades continuously, is highly liquid, and occupies the high-volatility segment of the risk spectrum. When real yields experience sharp movements following a CPI or labor repricing, BTC can become one of the quickest avenues for the market to express that change.

Why Bitcoin resembles a rates product now

Two structural changes have made this macro chain more relevant for BTC.

First, spot Bitcoin ETFs have established a straightforward, regulated method for investors to maintain BTC exposure within brokerage accounts. This is significant because the marginal buyer pool now encompasses allocators and risk managers who already consider macro factors: yields, inflation trajectories, policy expectations, and risk budgets.

Second, derivatives amplify repricing days. Futures and perpetual contracts translate macro volatility into positioning volatility. Funding rates and basis can escalate rapidly when the market leans in one direction, and that positioning can unwind quickly when macro data necessitates a reassessment.

The outcome is that BTC price movements can appear sharper than the underlying macro impulse, even when the initial catalyst originates from bonds.

A straightforward method to monitor the macro stack weekly

The simplest way to track the macro stack is to concentrate on a select few indicators that correspond to each stage in the chain and to analyze them collectively rather than in isolation. The objective is to follow macro catalysts while still allowing for crypto-specific liquidity and positioning.

Begin with real yields since they are positioned at the end of the transmission path and typically provide the clearest summary of financial conditions. A quick glance at the US 10-year Treasury bond reveals whether real yields have been trending upward or downward over the past week, which often aligns with the direction of tightening or easing in broader risk appetite.

Next, assess how the market has interpreted the latest data into policy expectations. CME FedWatch captures the shifts in implied rate outcomes and presents them as changes in probabilities surrounding specific meetings.

If the market has anticipated earlier cuts or priced a softer trajectory, that often corresponds with declining yields. Conversely, if the market has delayed cuts or priced a firmer path, that often aligns with rising yields.

Following that, examine crypto-specific liquidity and demand indicators to determine whether the macro impulse has a robust or weak transmission channel into Bitcoin. Stablecoin supply serves as a rough proxy for deployable crypto dollars circulating between exchanges, DeFi, and OTC markets, and it often reflects whether liquidity is expanding or contracting in the segment of the market that actually funds spot purchases and leverage.

ETF flows provide another insight, offering a visible indication of whether there is a consistent demand coming through regulated channels. When flows trend positively, they can offer support during volatile macro periods. Conversely, when flows slow or reverse, macro movements can have a more pronounced impact due to diminished structural demand absorbing volatility.

Lastly, evaluate the risk temperature within derivatives. Funding and basis serve as a quick gauge of whether positioning is crowded. Elevated funding often accompanies aggressive long positioning, which can transform a yield spike into a more rapid decline through liquidations. Conversely, lower funding typically indicates less leverage, which can mitigate forced movements even when macro pressures rise.

Collectively, these five indicators—real yields, Fed pricing, stablecoin liquidity, ETF flows, and derivatives temperature—function as a compact dashboard that readers can capture and utilize. When the majority of them align in the same direction over a week, BTC tends to trade with a macro-first approach as the chain aligns from data to policy pricing to yields to liquidity and positioning.

Conclusion: the shift in mental models

Bitcoin retains its long-term narrative: adoption, infrastructure, regulation, custody, and its role as a global asset. However, it is the weekly storyline that frequently aligns with rates.

This is why a benchmark revision can hold more significance than a singular payroll report, and why a CPI release can influence BTC within minutes.

The chain extends from labor and inflation to policy pricing, real yields, and liquidity.

Once you learn to observe this chain, BTC price movements begin to resemble a rapid, liquid reflection of financial conditions rather than a series of unrelated reactions, and the next significant CPI or labor update appears as a cross-asset event that Bitcoin will respond to in real time.

What Would Satoshi Say?

If you were to tell Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, in 2009 that Bitcoin would eventually “trade like a bond,” would he accept that?

Bitcoin was conceived as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, not as a yield instrument, a duration proxy, or a macro hedge fund trade. The notion that BTC would be evaluated through the lens of real yields, CPI reports, and 10-year Treasury volatility would likely be perceived as a consequence of institutional adoption rather than the protocol’s original intent.

However, he might not be surprised.

From its inception, Bitcoin integrated monetary policy into its code: fixed supply, predictable issuance, and resistance to arbitrary debasement.

As the asset matured and liquidity increased, markets were destined to price it against the same macroeconomic variables that govern sovereign debt, inflation expectations, liquidity cycles, and real interest rates.

When global investors regard Bitcoin as a long-duration, supply-limited monetary asset, its sensitivity to bond markets becomes less an identity crisis and more a reflection of its position within the broader capital structure.

Satoshi might contend that markets can trade Bitcoin however they wish. The protocol remains indifferent. Blocks continue to be produced every 10 minutes. Supply approaches 21 million. Difficulty adjusts. Consensus endures.

If anything, Bitcoin trading “like a bond” in 2026 could be interpreted as validation: a stateless monetary asset substantial enough to be included in discussions alongside sovereign debt markets.

He might simply respond with what he stated in 2010: “It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on.”

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