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The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has cautioned White House employees against placing bets on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, highlighting concerns over potential misuse of their positions.
White House staff received an email on March 24, the day after Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes against Iran. The message referenced media reports expressing worries that government officials might leverage insider information for betting purposes. The authors of the email indicated that this could lead to conflicts of interest and misuse of authority in wagering on political events.
This week, Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, formally requested that Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), promptly investigate suspicious trading activity on Polymarket. This request came just hours before Trump declared a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran on April 7.
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Torres pointed out “newly created addresses” on Polymarket that made specific and timely bets regarding the ceasefire date, despite the absence of public indicators suggesting a likely truce. These addresses reportedly earned hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit within a few hours. Torres urged the CFTC to obtain necessary data from Polymarket, analyze the connections between the addresses and their transaction history, and subsequently present the findings to Congress.
“The trading activity occurred at a time when the public rhetoric from the U.S. president indicated escalation rather than de-escalation. It is unlikely that the trades were based solely on publicly available information. This raises serious concerns that some market participants may have had access to critical non-public information related to a geopolitical event that could impact the market,” Torres wrote.
White House press officer Davis Ingle dismissed any claims suggesting that administration officials were engaged in such activities as unfounded. A subordinate of Trump assured that all federal officials, including the president, are required to adhere to ethical standards prohibiting the use of insider information for personal financial gain. According to Ingle, Trump is guided solely by the interests of the American people.
In January, three crypto addresses earned $630,484 on Polymarket by predicting the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This occurred shortly before the announcement of Maduro’s arrest by U.S. special forces. In early March, six addresses on Polymarket collectively made around $1 million on bets regarding a military strike by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Most of the accounts were created just a day before the attack, as revealed by analysts from Bubblemaps.
