Transform Venture Head: Bitcoin Faces Potential New Challenge, 2026/02/13 10:15:35

The CEO of Transform Ventures, Michael Terpin, indicated that Bitcoin may need to endure another decline to $50,000 before it can resume its upward trajectory.

Speaking at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference, Terpin explained that Bitcoin continues to operate within the historical market cycle and halving patterns, and the current correction is not yet complete.

“When people suggest that the bottom will be at $80,000 and that the bear cycle will last only six weeks, it seems absurd to me. The asset is likely to encounter another point of pain and drop to levels of $50,000 or even $40,000 before it begins to rise,” the investor clarified.

He reminded attendees that previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022 reached their lows approximately 12 months after the peak of the bull market. The new historical high for Bitcoin above $126,000 was recorded on October 2, 2025. If the current cycle maintains a similar pattern, the formation of a bottom could occur in the fall.

Terpin noted that market pressure is generated not only by the mechanics of halving but also by the actions of large holders. Following a rapid peak, some investors began to take profits, which intensified the downward movement. In such conditions, increased volatility becomes a natural phase of capital redistribution, and short-term rebounds should not be interpreted as a sustainable reversal.

However, a potential decline to $50,000, according to his assessment, does not negate the long-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin. Historically, deep corrections have laid the groundwork for the next growth phase, clearing the market of speculative capital and strengthening fundamental demand.

Previously, the CEO of the analytics platform CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, stated that the first cryptocurrency has no chance of exhibiting a bullish trend in the near future.