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Sygnum Bank’s top executive links Bitcoin’s movement to prediction markets., 2026/04/07 11:34:50
Amid escalating tensions surrounding Iran, the cryptocurrency market has gained a new risk assessment tool—prediction platforms, stated Fabian Dori, the investment director of Swiss Sygnum Bank.
These platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allow users to wager on the likelihood of specific events—ranging from military conflicts to diplomatic agreements. Such services create a new type of signal for the crypto market, grounded in the distribution of actual capital.
“Prediction markets evaluate specific, clearly defined events with real capital backing them. For the crypto industry, where prices often fluctuate due to binary events—regulatory changes, political developments, or protocol updates—this represents a fundamentally different signal,” Dori remarked.
During the recent escalation concerning Iran, the shifts in probabilities on these platforms outpaced the reactions of traditional media. According to Dori, the dynamics of these indicators correlated with Bitcoin’s movements.
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The market’s response was nearly instantaneous. Statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a potential resolution of the conflict within “two to three weeks” bolstered the rise of crypto assets. The following day, after reports of new strikes, Bitcoin began to decline.
Major market participants are starting to incorporate such data into their investment decisions. Notably, ARK Invest utilizes information from Kalshi in its analytics. According to Dune, in March 2026, the number of transactions on such platforms exceeded 200 million, with a monthly trading volume reaching $25 billion. Investments in this sector are also increasing: Intercontinental Exchange invested $600 million in Polymarket, Dori reported.
He assessed that such data is increasingly being used alongside traditional indicators—funding rates, options markets, and liquidity flows. This may indicate an expansion of the analytical tools available for the crypto market, where behavioral signals complement classic metrics.
Prediction markets have already transcended their niche product status. The question lies in their practical application and integration into investment analysis, noted the representative of Sygnum Bank.
Previously, David Grider, a top manager at investment firm Finality Capital, stated that the crypto market could undergo a multi-stage reset this year, followed by the establishment of a sustainable bullish cycle.
