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A decline in Bitcoin’s price below $70,000 may suggest that the market has only reached the midpoint of the current bearish cycle, according to analysts at Kaiko Research.
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Their analysis indicates that the drop in prices marks the end of the market’s euphoric phase and the transition into a traditional bearish cycle, which could extend until the year’s conclusion.
“The 32% drop in Bitcoin represents the most significant correction since the 2024 halving and may indicate that only half of the current bearish cycle has transpired. On-chain metrics reveal that the market is approaching critical support levels, which will determine whether the four-year cycle model remains intact,” noted Kaiko Research.
Market pressure is corroborated by a decrease in trading activity. The total volume of spot trading on the largest centralized exchanges has fallen by approximately 30% — from around $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November.
Additionally, open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has also diminished. Over the past week, this metric decreased from $29 billion to $25 billion (–14%), which analysts believe reflects the ongoing corrective phase.
Kaiko Research suggests that a bottom formation may occur within the range of $40,000–$50,000, after which the market could shift towards consolidation.
Previously, Hunter Horsley, CEO of the digital asset management firm Bitwise, stated that the $70,000 level could be viewed as an opportunity to increase positions.
