Experts from the mining pool outlined the future outlook for Bitcoin mining in the coming years., 2026/03/11 16:45:19

By the year 2030, the majority of Bitcoin network power will be controlled by the five largest miners, with access to inexpensive electricity being the key factor for survival, according to a report from analysts at the Neopool mining pool.

Reflecting on the industry’s history, experts recalled that in the early years of the network, the mining of the first cryptocurrency was conducted by owners of personal computers. It was only later that mining pools emerged, marking the beginning of market participant consolidation.

A significant turning point occurred in 2013 with the introduction of specialized ASIC devices designed solely for Bitcoin mining. This equipment dramatically increased mining efficiency and rendered home mining nearly unprofitable. Consequently, computational power began to concentrate in large data centers.

Following the halving in 2024, when the block reward was reduced to 3.125 BTC, mining profitability significantly declined. This prompted operators to upgrade their equipment, optimize energy consumption, and seek new revenue sources, the study’s authors noted.

By early 2026, the global hash rate of the network surpassed 1000 EH/s, and mining difficulty approached record levels. Currently, according to Neopool, mining profitability is influenced by:

• the price of Bitcoin;

• network difficulty;

• electricity costs;

• efficiency of the equipment used.

Energy expenses can account for up to 80% of the total operational costs for mining companies. Operators paying more than $0.06 per kWh for electricity or utilizing outdated equipment face significant pressure even when Bitcoin prices are relatively high.

Following the upcoming halving in 2028, the block reward will decrease to 1.5625 BTC, intensifying the pressure on miners’ revenues. Profitability will remain for operators who can secure electricity at less than $0.04 per kWh, Neopool specialists suggested. Their estimates indicate that by 2030, the five largest firms will control over 60% of the global Bitcoin network hash rate, leading to the gradual exit of smaller operators from the market.

Analysts from the mining pool believe that in the coming years, mining will ultimately evolve into a capital-intensive industry requiring substantial investments, effective management, and access to affordable energy resources. In this context, the primary factor for success will be not just the amount of computational power, but the ability to efficiently manage infrastructure and reduce costs, the study’s authors concluded.

Previously, experts from the investment firm Paradigm stated that uninformed individuals often perceive mining solely as electricity consumption, while in reality, it plays a vital role in the energy market by helping to balance the grid.