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CryptoQuant Expert: Only One Group of Bitcoin Investors Remains Profitable, 2026/03/11 11:10:14
Axel Adler, an expert from the on-chain platform CryptoQuant, stated that in the current conditions of the cryptocurrency market, long-term Bitcoin holders maintain the most stable position.
According to the analyst, the Bitcoin market has entered a phase of coin redistribution, which typically follows a period of significant overheating. Short-term investors have been experiencing unrealized losses for several months.
“The asset price around $67,976 barely covers the cost basis for the most ‘recent’ investors who acquired coins in the past few weeks. The main imbalance is concentrated among market participants who entered between November and February,” he noted.
The expert estimates that investors with a holding period of one to three months purchased Bitcoin at an average price of $86,791. Market participants holding coins for three to six months bought them at approximately $99,434.
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“Currently, these groups are facing losses of about 22% and 32%, respectively. Meanwhile, the overall realized price for all short-term holders is around $88,926,” Adler explained.
He indicated that this situation creates a significant supply “overhang” in the market. As prices rise, some investors may seek to sell their assets to at least break even, which could hinder further price increases.
A different scenario is observed among long-term investors, whose average purchase price remains considerably lower than current market levels.
“Long-term players remain in a comfortable profit zone and show no signs of forced capitulation. The range of $52,000–53,000 currently serves as the lower boundary for the entire long-term market structure. As long as the price stays above this level, there are no systemic threats to the current market cycle,” the analyst emphasized.
Adler estimates that the gap between the price bases of short-term and long-term investors is around $36,000. This configuration is typical for the late stage of a correction following a market overheating phase.
A return of Bitcoin to the range of $70,000–72,000 could be the first signal of easing selling pressure. However, a complete recovery of the market structure can only be confirmed after a firm price consolidation above $86,000–89,000, the expert concluded.
Previously, analysts from the on-chain platform Glassnode stated that the cryptocurrency market has transitioned into a stabilization phase, but for a full return of the bullish rally, Bitcoin requires an influx of new capital.
