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The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, in an interview with the South Korean publication Digital Asset, characterized the current market phase as a full-fledged bear cycle and outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s recovery.
He cautioned that the recovery process may take several months, and before it stabilizes, the market could experience further declines. The first scenario suggests a drop in price to $55,000 — the average purchase price level for BTC holders. According to Ju, reaching this level would allow for the “elimination” of weak investors and create conditions for new growth.
The second scenario involves a prolonged sideways consolidation within the $60,000–$70,000 range, which could last for several months. Instead of a sharp decline, the price may fluctuate within this corridor, which could be psychologically challenging for traders but would enable the market to build momentum for future growth, Ju explained.
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The analyst linked the prolonged weakness of Bitcoin to selling pressure that is hindering the influx of new capital from major companies. He noted that after significant corrections, the market typically requires at least three months of consolidation before investor sentiment becomes more optimistic. He advised against interpreting short-term rebounds as the onset of a new bull rally.
Currently, the conditions for sustainable growth are absent, the head of CryptoQuant pointed out. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has slowed, demand in the over-the-counter market has weakened, and the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization is either remaining stable or declining.
Ju stated that a considerable portion of the sell-offs is linked to major companies closing positions and reallocating capital to gold or the stock market. When prices cease to rise, institutional investors lose the incentive to maintain their positions, which intensifies market pressure. The growth potential for altcoins also remains limited, and their recovery may take a considerable amount of time.
Previously, Ki Young Ju had predicted an increase in shadow stablecoins amid heightened regulatory scrutiny regarding anti-money laundering efforts.
