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Analysts from Stifel suggest that Bitcoin could decline to $38,000. They have drawn a comparison between the leading cryptocurrency and the character from F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”
To support their prediction, the analysts created a chart that outlines the lowest points of all significant Bitcoin crashes since 2010. Stifel calculated:
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in 2011, the first cryptocurrency lost 93% of its value;
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in 2015, it dropped by 84%;
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in 2018, it fell by 83%;
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in 2022, it decreased by 76%.
By drawing a line through these lowest points of market downturns, it trends upward and indicates $38,000 as a likely minimum for the next decline.
The Stifel experts attempted to clarify their theory using the analogy of Fitzgerald’s character, who was born as an old man and then aged backward throughout his life until he died as an infant. Previously, the fixed cap of 21 million coins strengthened the cryptocurrency amid the dollar’s weakening due to monetary expansion. Up until 2025, a clear pattern was observed: Bitcoin appreciated when the dollar weakened, and the global money supply (M2) increased. The experts referred to this as “reverse aging,” akin to the life of Benjamin Button in the body of an elderly man.
However, starting in 2025, the relationship reversed: Bitcoin now declines simultaneously with the dollar, resembling Button, who appears as a child (thus representing a young currency) but behaves like an 80-year-old—similar to traditional fiat currencies, the Stifel experts explained.
Analysts also pointed to another indicator of Bitcoin’s “aging”—its close correlation with the Nasdaq 100 technology index. The index’s performance is directly influenced by signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the experts stated. According to them, the Nasdaq 100 rises when the regulator maintains a loose monetary policy and falls during tightening. If financial conditions do not ease, this will negatively impact stock valuations and further increase pressure on the Bitcoin market, the experts believe.
Analysts from K33 suggested that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop in value by 80%, as seen in 2018 and 2022. They attribute this to the significant presence of large corporate investors in the market, who are not eager to liquidate their Bitcoin reserves.
