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Bitcoin is unlikely to replicate the patterns of 2018 and 2022, according to K33 analysts., 2026/02/04 17:00:02
Despite the prolonged downturn, analysts from K33 believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience an 80% crash similar to the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. They suggested that it is premature to discuss the repetition of the typical four-year Bitcoin cycle.
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Concerns regarding the recurrence of this cycle could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, according to Vetle Lunde, head of K33’s research division. Long-term holders are reducing their positions to safeguard previously realized profits, while new capital is entering the market hesitantly—this intensifies selling pressure, reminiscent of past declines and triggering panic among investors.
However, there are significant differences from previous cycles—corporate investors are utilizing cryptocurrencies, there is an influx of funds into regulated products, and the easing of monetary policy in the U.S. has been noted, as highlighted by the analyst. He pointed out the billions invested in exchange-traded crypto products, the expansion of access to advisory services, and the launch of banking services related to cryptocurrencies.
Lunde identified indicators that are typically associated with the formation of a market bottom. On February 2, the trading volume of Bitcoin exceeded $8 billion, and the price returned to the lows of 2025. Simultaneously, in the derivatives markets, open interest and funding rates fell to extremely negative levels, while the wave of liquidations of long positions reached approximately $1.8 billion. Historically, such a combination has often preceded a trend reversal, Lunde asserts.
“Over the past two years, Bitcoin has shown nearly zero returns, and we do not see a pressing need for long-term holders to sell. Since the peak in October, Bitcoin has lost about 40%. Just last week, the asset decreased by 11% amid a growing global aversion to risk. We view the current prices as attractive for market entry for investors with a long-term strategy,” stated the K33 analyst.
The expert identified the area around $74,000 as a critically important support level. A breach below this mark could accelerate the decline: first to the peak of November 2021 (around $69,000), and then to the 200-week moving average at $58,000.
A new historical high for Bitcoin could be recorded as early as the end of 2026, suggested Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise. The key condition is the return of retail investors to the market.
