Analysts from K33 suggest that the most significant decline of Bitcoin is over., 2026/03/05 13:21:15

Bitcoin has entered an oversold territory: the weekly relative strength index of the leading cryptocurrency has dropped to 26.84, marking one of the three lowest readings recorded, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at brokerage firm K33.

The recent decline in price is largely attributed to the selling activities of long-term holders, a reduction in positions by corporate investors, and an overall extremely pessimistic market sentiment, the analyst noted. Exchange-traded fund investors have reduced their holdings by nearly 100,000 BTC, and the demand for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has fallen to a two-year low. However, brokers have observed that the outflow of funds from the crypto market has begun to ease recently. 

As a key indicator of market sentiment, Lunde highlights the derivatives markets: the funding rate in the perpetual futures market has turned negative. This marks only the tenth occurrence of such a situation since 2018, which may indicate stable demand for reducing long positions or opening short ones—resulting in perpetual futures trading at a discount compared to the spot market. A similar trend is evident in the options markets: traders are actively paying for protection against price declines, embedding a significant premium for “bearish bets” into the pricing.

According to K33, periods of reduced funding in the past have often led to increases in Bitcoin’s price. The average return 30 days after such phases was approximately 13%, with a probability of a positive outcome reaching 56%. Over longer timeframes, the results appeared even more pronounced. After 90 and 180 days, the average returns were 62% and 101%, respectively, with a success rate of about 78%.  

As another argument for the imminent rise in the first cryptocurrency’s prices, K33 points to Bitcoin’s relative stability amid the conflict between the U.S. and its allies with Iran. Following the onset of hostilities, oil and gas prices surged, while stock markets began to decline. During this period, Bitcoin experienced an increase to $74,000. Sales from major long-term holders have started to decrease.  

“The worst is behind us; now we just need to wait. We do not see compelling reasons to sell Bitcoin at current levels,” Lunde concluded.

Previously, Chris Tipper, an analyst at Australian crypto investment firm Ainslie Wealth, suggested that Bitcoin’s decline is linked to actions taken by China, which is actively accumulating gold reserves.