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Analysts from the data provider CF Benchmarks have indicated that the fair value of Bitcoin is approximately $136,000, while its current price remains below $71,000.
Despite the increase in global money supply (M2), Bitcoin has not demonstrated a comparable trend. Since mid-2025, the M2 metric has risen by about 12%, whereas the price of the leading cryptocurrency has decreased by nearly 35% during the same timeframe, the analysts noted.
Historically, a correlation has existed between Bitcoin and the money supply; increases in M2 have often been followed by subsequent rises in BTC. Currently, this relationship appears to have weakened.
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Experts identify monetary policy in the United States as a key factor. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains elevated interest rates, which restricts the influx of liquidity into risk assets. Under these circumstances, Bitcoin is more responsive to borrowing costs and market sentiment than to the growth of the money supply.
CF Benchmarks pointed out that such discrepancies have occurred in the past, but they typically have been temporary.
A similar situation is evident when comparing it to the U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $39 trillion. Previously, it was believed that its increase supported Bitcoin’s price, with both metrics moving in sync. This correlation has also weakened, contributing to market uncertainty, the analysts stated.
Earlier, James Check, the founder of the Checkonchain service, remarked that Bitcoin has transitioned from a “freshwater pool” to a “saltwater ocean” — reaching the level of traditional financial markets.
