Analysts at Bernstein have identified the timeline for Bitcoin reaching its lowest point., 2026/02/03 01:00:23

Despite the ongoing decline, the bearish cycle is not expected to last long, and the cryptocurrency market is anticipated to begin its recovery within this year, according to experts from the investment firm Bernstein.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin will reach a local minimum around $60,000 in the first half of the year. While short-term volatility may persist, experts foresee a reversal and the commencement of Bitcoin’s growth.  

The current drop in the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization is linked by analysts to the rising value of gold—investors have shifted their focus to the precious metal following increased demand from central banks of major countries, including China and India, which has driven up the asset’s price. Bernstein reports that Bitcoin’s market capitalization has decreased to approximately 4% of gold’s market cap—this represents nearly a two-year low.  

In spite of Bitcoin’s relative weakness, analysts assert that the past two years have marked a period of “institutional cycle” for the cryptocurrency. Key characteristics include a significant rise in spot Bitcoin ETFs to $165 billion and an increase in corporate Bitcoin holdings. 

This current cycle is fundamentally different from previous phases of rapid growth and decline, which were often driven by retail investor activity, according to Bernstein. The primary distinction is the resilience of corporate investors amid the correction. Analysts outline several factors that will contribute to a brief bearish cycle: 

• The outflow of funds from ETFs since the peak of assets has constituted a relatively small portion of the total volume. 

• There is no evidence of a large-scale capitulation among miners, which was typical in earlier cycles. 

• Corporate holders, such as Strategy, continue to acquire Bitcoin. Since the beginning of the year, they have purchased BTC worth $3.8 billion, even in the face of losses. 

Analysts also highlight the potentially positive impact of U.S. policy. Events such as the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S., the appointment of Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve, and the overall increasing political support for the crypto industry could elevate prices. 

The market’s weakening is more likely a reflection of a late-stage correction rather than the onset of a prolonged crypto winter, representatives from Bernstein hope.    

Previously, the CEO of the crypto analytics service CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, suggested that a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price in the coming months is unlikely, and the leading crypto asset will remain in a prolonged stagnation.