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Bernstein Analysts Forecast Bitcoin to Reach $125,000 by Year-End

Analysts at Bernstein believe that Bitcoin has the potential to return to the $125,000 mark by the end of the current year. In their view, the price will be supported by large investors and funds that are actively accumulating the leading cryptocurrency.
Over the past ten days, Bitcoin’s value has risen by approximately 28% following a decline of nearly 50% from its all-time high recorded in October of last year. Bernstein interprets this rebound as a sign that the bear market phase is concluding.
The price decline during this phase was significantly milder compared to previous cycles, when the cryptocurrency lost between 75% and 90% of its peak value. Bernstein analysts attribute this to the growing role of large investors who are buying Bitcoin in anticipation of future growth.
Under a base-case market scenario, the asset’s price could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and approximately $300,000 in 2029. A more optimistic scenario suggests growth to $200,000 by mid-2027 and up to $500,000 two years later, according to Bernstein specialists.
According to the analysts, their calculations are based on the cryptocurrency’s four-year cycles linked to halving events. The company identifies four stages of the cycle: breakout, euphoria, decline, and accumulation. Another key indicator cited by experts is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market price to its marginal mining cost.
“We assume that the ratio of price to marginal cost will behave similarly to previous four-year cycles,” Bernstein experts stated.
In their opinion, the growth of the crypto market could improve the financial position of Strategy, the largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin. Currently, the company’s balance sheet holds 840,447 BTC, which accounts for approximately 4% of the maximum possible issuance of the leading cryptocurrency.
If Bitcoin continues to strengthen and STRC preferred shares recover to approximately $100, Strategy could resume building its cryptocurrency reserves. This would be possible after selling about 7,000 BTC since the beginning of the year, Bernstein analysts suggested.
Previously, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of the year. He cited increased liquidity in the U.S. government bond market as one of the primary reasons.