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A group of traders profited from military and political forecasts on Polymarket., 2026/04/09 17:16:10
A group of traders on the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket has been placing and winning bets on geopolitical events for the past two years, utilizing multiple accounts—both newly created and older ones, as revealed by analysts from Bubblemaps. The traders reportedly earned over $1.8 million from bets related to U.S. operations in Iran.
On April 7, the group made a profit of approximately $611,000 by betting on the likelihood of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Earlier, at the end of February, three accounts from the group generated more than $1.2 million based on predictions regarding strikes by Israel and the U.S. on Iran. Bubblemaps identified three accounts that are part of this profitable group: djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg, Elonfax89678 and Skoobidoobnj.
The majority of the profits were derived from bets anticipating that a ceasefire would occur before April 7 or 15. However, the group incurred losses of nearly $50,000 on bets related to a ceasefire before March 31, as those predictions did not materialize.
Bubblemaps emphasizes that the large size of the bets alone does not prove that the traders had access to insider information.
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“Nonetheless, the track record of successful predictions regarding unexpected strikes on Iran suggests that they may have access to more reliable information than most,” noted the blockchain analysts.
Polymarket is a platform where users can place bets on real-world events, ranging from election outcomes to the results of sports competitions. Participants purchase tokens that represent potential outcomes of events. The more tokens sold, the greater the votes for a particular outcome. The blockchain platform was established in 2020.
In January, an unidentified trader earned over $430,000 on Polymarket by betting on the resignation of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This user’s account was linked by crypto researchers to U.S. special envoy Steve Wietkoff.
In Israel, two Israeli military reservists were arrested for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket.
