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In 2023, Ether (ETH) experienced a decline of more than 7.5% against Bitcoin (BTC). However, the ETH/BTC pair may completely recover its year-to-date losses in April, as the highly anticipated Shanghai hard fork is imminent.
The upgrade is scheduled for April 12, allowing Ethereum stakers to withdraw approximately 1.1 billion ETH in rewards, valued at over $2 billion as of April 8.
ETH price sees significant technical rebound
Numerous analysts view the hard fork as a positive development for Ether in the long run. For example, the excitement surrounding Shanghai has contributed to Ether’s outperformance compared to Bitcoin in April.
Consequently, the ETH/BTC pair has increased by roughly 4.75% month-to-date, reaching 0.066 BTC as of April 8, marking an almost 8% recovery since March 20.
This rebound was largely anticipated, especially as ETH/BTC fell to its historical ascending trendline support. The upward movement now enhances the likelihood of a prolonged bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, identified as a “sell zone” in the chart below.
ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
The fractal-based forecast positions Ether to reach 0.075 BTC by June, representing a 10% increase from current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair’s target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
On the other hand, a definitive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) around 0.066 BTC, which coincides with a support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, could delay or potentially invalidate the bullish retracement scenario.
This bearish perspective aligns with independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto, who anticipates significant selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level, which could lead to a 50% decline in 2023.
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ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CrediBULL Crypto
Ethereum versus U.S. dollar outlook
The ETH/USD pair has surged by over 50% in 2023, largely due to similar upward trends in the broader cryptocurrency market.
A weakening dollar, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations of a Federal Reserve shift regarding interest rate hikes have contributed to the rise of cryptocurrencies during Q1. These factors are likely to remain in focus until the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in May.
Shanghai bringing the first greenshoots of #AltcoinSeason ?$ETH is perking up to an 8 month high as we approach one week until the Shanghai fork update @ 10:27:35 PM UTC on the 12th (Epoch #620,9536)
The rally has mostly been a Fed/USD rates story, causing BTC to lead the way.… pic.twitter.com/dI0bpywR16— Rich Rosenblum (@Rich_GSR) April 4, 2023
As a result, Ether may maintain its annual gains in April, consolidating within the $1,800–2,000 range until the Fed’s decision.
Related: 3 key Ethereum price metrics cast doubt on the strength of ETH’s recent rally
Furthermore, a significant breakout at current levels could lead to further gains, with a second-quarter ETH price target exceeding $3,000.
ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
Conversely, bearish traders will seek to drive the price down to close below $1,800, with the triangle’s lower trendline around $1,600 serving as its downside target.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
