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The disparity in futures basis between CME and Deribit indicates differing risk appetites across regions.
(Anne Nygård/Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk)
What to know:
- U.S. institutional investors are upholding their leveraged positions in bitcoin while offshore traders are diminishing their exposure, according to NYDIG.
- The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit highlights differing risk appetites across regions.
- Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are in line with quantum computing stocks, indicating a broader market trend rather than a specific quantum risk factor.
A divergence in global bitcoin market sentiment is widening as U.S. institutional investors remain firm while offshore traders pull back from their positions.
The distinction is most evident in the futures markets. CME, the preferred platform for hedge funds and institutional desks in the U.S., shows that traders continue to pay a premium to maintain long positions in bitcoin, as noted by NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro.
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This is clear on a one-month annualized basis, which indicates the markup for futures over spot prices, remaining higher than on its offshore counterpart, Deribit.
“The more significant decline in offshore basis indicates a reduced desire for leveraged long positions,” Cipolaro stated. “The widening gap between CME and Deribit basis serves as a real-time indicator of regional risk appetite.”
Earlier this month, bitcoin dropped to $60,000 before recovering. Some attributed the selloff to escalating concerns that quantum computing might compromise the system’s cryptographic security. However, NYDIG found that the data does not support this reasoning.
For instance, bitcoin’s performance has closely mirrored that of publicly traded quantum-computing firms such as IONQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS). If quantum risk were genuinely impacting crypto, those stocks would be rising while bitcoin would be declining.
Instead, both experienced declines, indicating a broader reduction in interest for long-term, future-oriented assets. Additionally, search data from Google Trends reveals that interest in “quantum computing bitcoin” increases when BTC prices rise.
