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JPMorgan indicated that subdued crypto markets impacted fourth-quarter outcomes but supports Coinbase’s approach of investing through market cycles and returning capital via buybacks.
Wall Street analysts have adjusted their price targets for Coinbase following a fourth-quarter earnings shortfall. (Unsplash, modified by CoinDesk)
Key points:
- JPMorgan has kept an overweight rating on Coinbase shares while reducing its price target to $252 after the fourth-quarter earnings and EBITDA fell short of expectations.
- Broker Canaccord lowered its price target for Coinbase to $300 from $400, while retaining a buy rating.
- Decreases in trading volumes and retail take rates at the cryptocurrency exchange led the investment bank to revise its future fee projections downward.
Analysts on Wall Street, including those from JPMorgan (JPM) and Canaccord, have reduced their price targets for Coinbase (COIN) stock after the largest publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange did not meet fourth-quarter earnings expectations.
JPMorgan noted that declining crypto prices and trading volumes affected fee income. The bank sustained its overweight rating on the exchange but lowered the price target to $252 from $290 in a report released on Thursday.
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The stock, which has declined approximately 40% this year, was trading around $150 at the time of publication in pre-market activity. It closed the previous day at $141.09.
Stocks linked to cryptocurrencies have experienced a volatile start to the year, generally reflecting the fluctuating digital asset market. Prominent firms like Coinbase have faced pressure on their share prices due to decreased crypto trading volumes and falling token values. Bitcoin , the leading cryptocurrency, continues to trade significantly below its late-2025 highs and is down about 25% year-to-date.
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JPMorgan analysts, led by Kenneth Worthington, indicated that increased operating expenses, which rose by 22% year-over-year, and a shift towards lower-fee Advanced trading and Coinbase One subscriptions impacted results negatively.
The analysts revised their forward take-rate estimates downward and referenced a weaker volume and market capitalization outlook as reasons for lowering the price target. The take rate represents the percentage of transaction volume that the company retains as revenue.
According to broker Canaccord, Coinbase’s size and profitability are notable in a turbulent crypto landscape, maintaining its buy rating while adjusting its price target to $300 from $400 after revising short-term forecasts following the earnings report.
Despite falling spot prices affecting the wider industry, the broker stated that Coinbase remains profitably robust and is gradually increasing its market share as it broadens its product offerings.
Analysts under Joseph Vafi highlighted advancements in the company’s “Everything Exchange,” growth in USDC commerce applications, and the expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi) functionalities on Base and Ethereum in the Thursday report.
The acquisition of Deribit, a derivatives exchange purchased during the year, was characterized as a strategic move that facilitates cross-selling opportunities beyond the U.S. across both spot and derivatives markets.
The analysts reported that global trading volume and market share have increased by approximately 100% compared to the previous year, with recent records in notional volume driven by activity in gold and silver futures.
Canaccord anticipates a challenging first quarter for the sector and predicts Coinbase to gain further market share while enhancing stock buybacks. The firm considers the stock to be near cyclical lows, with the new $300 target based on 22 times its 2027 EBITDA estimate.
Read more: Coinbase misses Q4 estimates as transaction revenue falls below $1 billion
