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U.S. experienced an unforeseen decline of 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4%.
The soft data may revive possibilities for Fed rate reductions in the first half of 2026.
What to know:
- The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February compared to economist predictions of 59,000.
- The unemployment rate was recorded at 4.4%, against an expectation of 4.3%.
- Bitcoin remained lower for the session at $70,000 following the data release.
The U.S. labor market showed significant weakening in February, potentially reviving the possibility of Federal Reserve rate reductions in the first half of 2026.
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The country experienced a loss of 92,000 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report released on Friday. Economists had anticipated an increase of 59,000 jobs, compared to a gain of 126,000 in January.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, and up from January’s figure of 4.3%.
Under pressure overnight ahead of the report and trading down to $70,000 as oil prices surged and stock markets declined, bitcoin stayed around that level in the moments following the data release.
U.S. stock index futures continue to decline, with the Nasdaq down 1% and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by four basis points to 4.11%. Precious metals have reversed an earlier decline, with gold up by 1% and silver by 2%. WTI crude oil has increased by 6.2% to $86 per barrel.
Prior to this morning’s report, markets were estimating a 95% likelihood that the Federal Reserve would maintain rates at the March 18 meeting and an 85% chance of no rate cut in April.
Meanwhile, escalating oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East may exert upward pressure on inflation expectations. If persistent, increased energy prices could contribute to broader inflation, particularly through energy and food expenses. Coupled with indications that the U.S. economy may be re-accelerating, this could lead markets to reevaluate the trajectory of monetary policy.
