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Your day-ahead look for March 3, 2026
Oil shock drags bitcoin down(LoboStudioHamburg/Pixabay)
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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin declined over 3.5% to below $67,000 as rising tensions in the Middle East prompted investors to shift from risk assets to the U.S. dollar.
As the situation worsens, Iran has issued threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route that accounts for approximately one-fifth of the global oil supply.
Shipping costs for crude and liquefied natural gas carriers have surged following attacks on vessels in the region, leading several operators to halt operations. Brent crude prices have risen more than 13% over the past five days, while freight charges for large oil tankers have reached unprecedented levels.
The impact is being felt across financial markets. The dollar index (DXY) has climbed nearly 1%, and U.S. Treasury yields have increased as investors pivot away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, amid concerns that central banks may confront renewed inflationary pressures due to rising fuel prices.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 but reversed direction as the conflict escalated. Despite the tensions, cryptocurrency values have largely remained within a defined range.
The initial U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend caused a drop in both bitcoin and ether, resulting in around $300 million in long liquidations; however, analysts at QCP Capital noted that the deleveraging appeared orderly compared to previous incidents earlier this year.
The analysts mentioned that options markets experienced a brief increase in short-term volatility, although positioning indicates that traders were prepared for the risk over the weekend.
“If we recall the previous U.S. strike on Iran last June (also a weekend), BTC broke below $100,000 as the news broke only to trade back above on Monday, and subsequently rallied to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts noted. “While the scale of this attack is significantly larger than last year’s, price movements might be signaling early indications of history repeating itself.”
Options activity indicates that buyers are positioning for a possible rally beyond the $70,000 threshold, suggesting investors are anticipating a recovery this month after the market’s sharp decline.
The Strait of Hormuz remains pivotal to the ongoing standoff, with contradictory statements from Iranian and U.S. officials about whether the waterway is closed. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that the conflict is expected to last “four to five weeks.” Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
Related Posts
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Crypto
- March 3: SolCex mobile app to launch on Google Play and Apple’s App Store.
- Macro
- March 3, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone inflation rate YoY flash for February (Prev. 1.7%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.2%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Governance votes & calls
- ShapeShift DAO is voting to appoint PTT as the Tokenomics Workstream Leader for a 6-month term, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to explore the automatic execution of approved proposals and soft term limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
- Unlocks
- No major unlocks.
- Token Launches
- No major launches.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Nothing scheduled.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,918.56 (24hrs: +0.57%)
- ETH is down 4.04% at $1,959.34 (24hrs: unchanged)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% at 1,927.49 (24hrs: +0.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.89% at 99.25
- Gold futures are down 0.30% at $5,278.60
- Silver futures are down 4.65% at $84.18
- Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05
- Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,768.08
- FTSE 100 is down 2.76% at 10,478.54
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 3.49% at 5,777.18
- DJIA closed on Monday down 0.15% at 48,904.78
- S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 9 bps at 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.83% at 6,762.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.30% at 24,448.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.74% at 48,104.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.81%
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.14
- Total Fees: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%
