Quadruple witching approaches as markets prepare for possible fluctuations in bitcoin.

Bitcoin exhibited subdued performance on quadruple witching days in 2025, followed by a decline in the subsequent days to weeks.

Fireworks explode in the night sky. (photogrammer7/Pixabay)

Key points:

• Trillions in equity and index derivatives are set to expire on Friday during the quarterly quadruple witching event.
• Bitcoin’s performance on the 2025 quadruple witching days was primarily subdued on the day itself, but typically followed by a decline in the days to weeks after.
• Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, indicated that the upcoming quadruple witching event is contributing to heightened volatility in the crypto markets.

This Friday, global markets will encounter a quarterly derivatives event worth trillions, known as quadruple witching.

The occurrence takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, when four significant categories of derivatives expire at once. These comprise stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and single-stock futures.

As traders are required to close, roll, or settle these positions simultaneously, trading activity often experiences a surge, which can lead to increased price fluctuations in traditional markets.

Large expirations of this nature often compel institutions to rebalance their portfolios, unwind hedges, and modify risk exposure within a tight timeframe. Much of this activity tends to concentrate in the final trading hour, when liquidity surges and volatility can escalate rapidly.

This quarter’s expiration coincides with an already volatile trading landscape. Recent conflicts in the Middle East have driven oil prices to $120 per barrel, while gold has dipped below $4,600 and bitcoin has fallen below $69,000. Additionally, the VIX volatility index surged above 35 last week, marking the highest level in a year, indicating increased stress in financial markets.

Though quadruple witching originates from traditional finance, its effects can extend into crypto markets. Bitcoin has increasingly traded in conjunction with broader risk assets, meaning that significant movements in equities often impact digital markets as well.

Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, noted that the upcoming event could induce volatility in crypto markets, stating that “quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire. This may already be reflected in crypto, with the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility (BVIV) Index trending higher as the event approaches.”

BVIV (TradingView)

Bitcoin’s performance on quadruple witching days in 2025

On March 21, bitcoin experienced a slight decline on the day itself, but the more pronounced movement occurred later, with prices hitting a low a few weeks afterward around $76,000 following the market’s response to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

On June 20, bitcoin decreased by 1.5% and continued to drift downward, reaching a local low near $98,000 just two days later. On September 19, Bitcoin fell by more than 1% during the day, but the significant drop unfolded in the week that followed, with a steep decrease from $177,000 to $108,000. Then, on December 19, bitcoin closed approximately 3% higher at about $85,000, although it stayed within a broader downturn from the October peaks.

While price movements on the day itself tend to be relatively modest, a consistent trend of weakness is evident in the days to weeks that ensue.

Even if the quad-witching does not contribute to bitcoin’s volatility on Friday, crypto traders have another significant event for digital assets to consider.
Crypto derivatives will encounter their own major quarterly expiration the following week, on March 27, with $13.5 billion set to expire on Deribit, where positioning indicates a heightened interest in volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets.