“Prominent analyst questions the timing of bitcoin accumulation.”

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James Check stated that time, rather than price, is likely to be more challenging for bulls moving forward, although bitcoin has largely been de-risked at this stage.

Bitcoin bottoming process becomes clear (Shutterstock)

What to know:

  • According to James Check, bitcoin seems to be nearing its bottom based on various indicators.
  • Similar to 2022, it may take several months of fluctuations before the actual cycle low is established.

Bitcoin is displaying typical characteristics of a bottom formation across numerous indicators, trading at levels that have historically signaled significant recoveries, as noted by prominent onchain analyst James Check. However, it is time — rather than price — that is expected to present the greater challenge for bitcoin bulls.

"Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain, is operating within levels indicative of a bottom formation, usually observed following a price capitulation event (such as December 2018 and June 2022)," Check remarked on Tuesday morning as bitcoin fell below $63,000, seemingly heading towards the February 5 panic low of $60,000.

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"Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken," Check added. "Or you should be disregarding the bears … and quietly dollar cost averaging [and] accumulating sats from this point onward."

While Check acknowledges that it is possible, or even probable, that bitcoin’s price could decline further from this point, he emphasizes that time will be the crucial element. He recalls the severe of 2022. While many remember the price low of around $15,600 in December of that year, bitcoin essentially reached its bottom six months earlier at approximately $17,600. The remainder was merely a waiting game, followed by a final liquidity flush (related to the FTX collapse).

"This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for bitcoin," Check concluded. "If you’re not actively accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when?"