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According to NYSE President Lynn Martin, prediction market results are influencing how participants engage with traditional financial markets, as stated during an event at Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday.
CFTC Chair Mike Selig (left) and NYSE President Lynn Martin speaking on stage at the World Liberty forum. (Helene Braun/CoinDesk)
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Prediction markets are increasingly influencing movements within traditional financial markets, as remarked by New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin on Wednesday during the World Liberty forum in Palm Beach.
“It was very clear for us… that prediction markets [were being used] as an input to traditional markets,” she noted at the event hosted at Mar-a-Lago, referencing a moment in the 2024 U.S. presidential election when S&P futures saw an unexpected spike. Martin pointed out that this surge was later clarified by the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, which had indicated Donald Trump as the probable winner ahead of other sources.
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This statement underscores a rising recognition among institutional participants regarding the impact of on-chain data on market dynamics. In contrast to traditional polling or delayed forecasts, Polymarket’s immediate pricing delivers a type of crowdsourced probability feed that traders may find advantageous.
The NYSE’s interest extends beyond mere observation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the NYSE, made a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket in October, indicating that the leading stock exchange operator envisions a future with blockchain-based forecasting solutions.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who assumed office late last year, supported Martin’s remarks concerning the societal relevance of prediction markets, stating that they possess implications for national security and serve as a counterbalance to conventional newspaper journalism. He also mentioned their significance in entertainment and sports—an area that state regulators are closely monitoring.
“The states have really led this campaign of open warfare against markets that are under the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” Selig stated. “The CFTC has for decades [overseen] prediction markets.”
He referenced the amicus brief the CFTC submitted earlier this week in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals regarding one case, which was followed hours later by the rejection of prediction market provider Kalshi’s request for a stay against the state of Nevada’s attempts to close its sports-related prediction markets.
“We’re going to fight this, we’re going to ensure our markets are free and fair and maintain integrity,” he said. “We won’t allow state gaming commissions to dictate how we regulate our markets.”
