Powell’s remarks on oil and inflation are expected to influence bitcoin investors.

Your day-ahead look for March 18, 2026

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images modified by CoinDesk)

What to know:

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)

Bitcoin BTC$73,979.85 and the broader cryptocurrency market are experiencing a pause ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which may indicate that the interest-rate environment is becoming less advantageous.

The central bank is largely anticipated to maintain the key borrowing rate steady within the 3.5%-3.75% range, shifting the attention to growth and inflation forecasts, along with Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks during the post-meeting press briefing.

"For investors, the crucial inquiry is whether the dot plot will indicate fewer cuts and if Powell will highlight the risks associated with hastening the easing of financial conditions," stated Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referencing the chart that shows where decision-makers predict interest rates will settle by the end of the year. "Any such development would reinforce a ‘higher for longer’ sentiment and tighten financial conditions marginally."

Dori noted that the bitcoin price is at a pivotal point, where repeated failures to maintain above $75,000 suggest caution and a tendency towards mean-reversion. If the Fed raises concerns regarding the inflationary effects stemming from the Iran war-related oil-price surge and strengthens expectations of slower or postponed rate reductions, then BTC is likely to stay below $75,000.

"A more hawkish approach could keep bitcoin constrained beneath 75k and prolong the current consolidation phase," he remarked.

Singapore-based QCP Capital indicated that markets have reduced easing expectations as the heightened oil price complicates the rationale for interest-rate reductions, even as growth and labor metrics soften. This situation renders the rates environment less favorable for crypto.

Bitcoin’s halted upward movement occurs despite a renewed institutional interest in spot ETFs and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC.

The wider market continues to reflect movements of the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 Index has remained relatively stable over the past 24 hours, with similar activity seen in ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and other major cryptocurrencies. In contrast, smaller coins like SIREN, M, and KAS have each risen by approximately 10%.

In traditional markets, futures linked to the S&P 500 index have increased by 0.5%, indicating the continuation of a two-day rally. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has retreated to 99.50 from Friday’s peak above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to 4.17% from 4.30%. Collectively, these shifts suggest ongoing risk-on sentiment. Remain vigilant!

Read more: For insights into today’s movements in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more extensive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • No events scheduled.
• Macro
  • March 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. PPI MoM for February est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Core PPI MoM est. (Prev. 0.8%)
  • March 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for February est. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%); Core PPI YoY est. 3.2% (Prev. 3.6%)
  • March 18, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision est. 2.25% (Prev. 2.25%)
  • March 18, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Factory Orders MoM for January (Prev. -0.7%)
  • March 18, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision est. 3.50%-3.75% (Prev. 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC economic projections
  • March 18, 2:30 p.m.: Fed Chair press conference
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03

Token Events

For a more thorough list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • March 18: Jupiter (JUP) will hold its weekly Planetary Call community session featuring team updates.
  • March 18: THETA$0.1876 head of marketing and PR will discuss updates related to the ecosystem.
  • WalletConnect Network is voting on allocating 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated rewards budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting concludes March 18.
  • ENS is voting on a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to address a shortfall in stream payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting ends March 18.
• Unlocks
  • No significant unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • March 18: Katana (KAT) will be listed on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin, and others.

Conferences

For a more detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 2: DC Blockchain Summit 2026 (Washington, D.C.)
• Day 2 of 3: Merge São Paulo (Brazil)

Market Movements

• BTC has decreased by 0.73% since 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, priced at $73,825.38 (24hrs: +0.11%)
• ETH has fallen by 0.44% to $2,307.45 (24hrs: -0.33%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.78% at 2,148.73 (24hrs: -0.27%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has dropped 6 bps to 2.75%
• BTC funding rate stands at -0.0069% (-7.5643% annualized) on Binance

• DXY remains steady at 99.56
• Gold futures have declined by 0.10% to $4,996.20
• Silver futures have increased by 0.65% to $80.05
• Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
• Hang Seng closed up 0.61% at 26,025.42
• FTSE 100 is up 0.29% at 10,433.60
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.02%