Polymarket suspends nuclear detonation betting markets following backlash

Markets themed around nuclear weapons have existed on the prediction market platform for some time, but backlash from the public regarding these contracts has seemingly led the platform to eliminate them.

(Polymarket)

Key points:

• Polymarket has discontinued longstanding markets that allowed users to wager on the probability of a nuclear weapon’s detonation, in light of the ongoing conflict with Iran and backlash concerning war-related insider trading.
• The contracts concerning nuclear detonations, which occasionally indicated risks as high as 19 percent and generated millions in trading volume, have heightened concerns regarding the potential for insiders to gain from prior knowledge of military operations.
• This issue arises as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission considers regulations that would prevent regulated exchanges from offering event contracts associated with war, terrorism, assassination, and other actions viewed as detrimental to public welfare.

For an extended period, bettors have had the opportunity to forecast the likelihood of a nuclear weapon detonating on Polymarket; however, the ongoing tensions with Iran and increased scrutiny of insider trading related to war have seemingly prompted the platform to eliminate these contracts.

Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions. pic.twitter.com/r1CbWaLWcw

— David Sirota (@davidsirota) March 3, 2026

The markets, which invited users to assign probabilities regarding whether a nuclear weapon would detonate by specific deadlines, have been present on Polymarket for several years and have historically concluded with a “No” outcome.

However, renewed scrutiny of these contracts follows a report of a trader earning over $400,000 by betting on the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro shortly before the U.S. operation that resulted in his capture, raising concerns about whether insiders could take advantage of the platforms for trading on the onset of war – including the current conflict with Iran – and other military actions.

Past trading indicates that the contracts sometimes reflected significant risk.

A Polymarket contract in 2023 at one point suggested an approximately 19% probability that a nuclear weapon would detonate before the year’s end, as per platform data.

(Polymarket)

A subsequent market expiring in June 2025 traded at approximately 12%.

These markets also witnessed considerable trading activity. The 2025 contract alone recorded over $1.7 million in trading volume, while the 2023 version attracted nearly $700,000 in bets.

This development occurs as U.S. regulators contemplate oversight measures for prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules in 2024 that would prevent regulated exchanges from offering event contracts linked to war, terrorism, assassination, or other actions considered harmful to the public interest.

Chairman Mike Selig stated that the Commission intends to provide clearer guidance on prediction markets in the near future.