Polymarket participants wager on an Iran ceasefire amid ongoing apprehensions about oil market volatility.

Your day-ahead look for March 23, 2026

Crude oil (Sumaid pal Singh Bakshi/Unsplash)

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless specified otherwise)

The conflict in Iran has significantly disrupted the macroeconomic landscape for investors in financial markets, and some market participants are wagering on a potential resolution soon.

Onchain data monitored by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory indicates that 10 wallets became active on Sunday, collectively betting $160,000 on a ceasefire by month’s end, with a possible payout exceeding $1,000,000. These wallets were created simultaneously and lack prior transaction history, raising concerns about possible insider activity regarding the outcome.

Regardless, should the conflict conclude, markets—including cryptocurrencies—might experience a relief rally.

At present, the war is in its fourth week, maintaining downward pressure on valuations. Bitcoin BTC$68,358.29 remained below $69,000 at the time of writing, continuing losses from the weekend. Ether declined to $2,030, marking its sixth drop in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09045 and other cryptocurrencies also faced pressure, while select privacy tokens like NIGHT and XMR recorded gains exceeding 3% in the last 24 hours.

"The market is currently influenced by one primary theme: geopolitical inflation. Recent developments included intensified U.S. pressure on Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz and additional threats to regional energy infrastructure. This has elevated oil risk and led investors to anticipate prolonged tight financial conditions," Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, noted in an email.

"Bitcoin continues to present the most favorable value-capture profile in crypto for this environment: a scarce asset, enhancing institutional infrastructure, and a relative flow leadership compared to the broader market," he added.

However, market flows have yet to support that perspective. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows for the third consecutive day on Friday, accompanied by significant selling from major holders, known as whales.

Ether has also seen substantial liquidations. A whale with over 130,000 ETH disposed of 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, as reported by Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multi-month highs, indicating tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures associated with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 reached their lowest points since early November. Stay vigilant!

Read more: For insights into today’s movements in altcoins and derivatives, refer to Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • March 23: The token generation event for Backpack will take place, distributing 250 million tokens (25% of total supply).
  • March 23: AKT$0.5539 Burn-Mint Equilibrium hard fork will be implemented.
  • March 23: The Casper Network (CSPR) mainnet v2.2.0 hard fork will activate.
• Macro
  • March 23, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Construction Spending MoM for January is estimated at 0.1% (previously 0.3%).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

Token Events

For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aave DAO is conducting a vote on deploying Aave V4 with a security-oriented initial setup, conservative risk parameters, and a modular hub and spoke architecture. Voting concludes on March 23.
  • Floki DAO is holding a vote to rank entries from Floki’s third guerrilla marketing competition. Voting ends on March 23.
• Unlocks
  • No significant unlocks are scheduled.
• Token Launches
  • March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking officially launches.

Conferences

For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 1 of 7: Polish Blockchain Week (Warsaw)

Market Movements

• BTC is up 3.01% since 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24hrs: +3.56%)
• ETH is up 5.07% at $2,168.32 (24hrs: +4.20%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% at 2,030.41 (24hrs: 2.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
• Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
• Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
• Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
• Hang Seng closed down 3.54% at 24,382.47
• FTSE 100 is down 2.03