Mike McGlone lowers Bitcoin’s downside forecast to $28,000 following criticism of his $10,000 prediction.

Market analysts indicated that the extreme downside scenario might affect actual capital flows, igniting a vigorous public discussion regarding bitcoin’s macro perspective.

Mike McGlone acknowledges the likes but does not accept the invitation for a debate regarding his $10,000 bitcoin price prediction. Bear. (Photo by Sean Benesh on Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk)

What to know:

• Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has revised his bitcoin downside target from $10,000 to approximately $28,000 following critiques suggesting his previous estimate was overly alarmist and risky for investors.
• McGlone now contends that $28,000 represents a more likely threshold based on historical price distribution, asserting that his analysis indicates why investors should steer clear of bitcoin and other risk assets.
• Critics, including Jason Fernandes and Mati Greenspan, argue that the adjusted $28,000 target remains improbable or excessively deterministic, cautioning that such stark predictions can distort market positioning and expose real capital to risk in reflexive crypto markets.

Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence appears to have retracted his $10,000 prediction for bitcoin, instead emphasizing $28,000 after facing challenges on social media and being labeled an alarmist whose “nonsensical” forecasts jeopardize real capital.

Earlier this week, McGlone cautioned that falling crypto values could indicate wider financial distress and that bitcoin might revert to $10,000 if U.S. equities peak and a recession follows. He characterized the token as a high-beta risk asset susceptible to a collapse in the post-2008 “buy the dip” environment.

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However, in a follow-up post on X, McGlone identified $28,000 as a more likely figure based on historical price distributions, marking a significant change from his previous base case. He also remarked that his analysis “suggests why not to buy bitcoin or most risk assets.”

This upward correction followed a debate challenge issued by market analyst and AdLunam co-founder, Jason Fernandes on X and LinkedIn.

Fernandes, whose LinkedIn challenge received a like but was not accepted by McGlone, informed CoinDesk that his broader critique remains valid, even after the Bloomberg analyst adjusted his target. “$28K is clearly more realistic than $10K,” Fernandes stated. “Fewer conditions need to occur for $28K than for $10K.”

Mati Greenspan, a market analyst and Quantum Economics founder, remarked that $28,000 still seems unlikely, “but in markets we should never dismiss any possibilities.”

Greenspan had also criticized McGlone in a post on X following his lower prediction, asserting, “Mr. @mikemcglone11 would have you think that an asset with trillions of dollars in monthly transactions could crash to a market cap of 200 billion.” He commented that the forecast was “literally nonsense.”

Fernandes previously suggested a more probable reset in the $40,000 to $50,000 range, assuming no systemic liquidity crisis occurs. He pointed out that $28,000 is now closer to his lower estimate than to McGlone’s initial prediction. “It’s worth noting that he has adjusted his near-term outlook nearer to my lower end than his previous estimate,” Fernandes remarked.

The discussion at hand involves more than just price targets. Fernandes emphasized that deterministic, alarmist framing can significantly impact market positioning and put “real capital at risk,” especially in reactive markets such as crypto.