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Michael Saylor suggests that bitcoin is reflecting Apple’s historic ‘valley of despair’ phenomenon.
Michael Saylor likened bitcoin’s 45% decline to Apple’s downturn in 2013, contending that experiencing substantial corrections is an inherent aspect of any fruitful technology investment.
What to know:
- Michael Saylor compared bitcoin’s 45% drop to Apple’s 2013 decline, asserting that navigating significant corrections is intrinsic to any prosperous technology investment.
- Saylor indicated that structural changes in derivatives markets and restricted bank credit are transforming this cycle and reducing volatility.
- Saylor dismissed concerns regarding quantum computing and renewed scrutiny related to Epstein as recurring narratives of fear.
Michael Saylor encourages bitcoin holders to reflect on Apple (AAPL).
Not Apple in its current state, but Apple in 2013, when its stock had plummeted 45% from its peak and was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio below 10, perceived as a stagnant cash cow lacking future growth. The iPhone was already essential for over a billion users, yet the market remained skeptical. It took seven years, along with the support of Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett, for Apple to completely regain its previous valuation.
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This analogy is favored by Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy (MSTR), the largest public holder of bitcoin .
“There truly is no instance of a successful technology investment where one did not have to endure the 45% drop and navigate through that valley of despair,” Saylor stated on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast.
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“Ours is currently taking 137 days thus far. However, it might require two years, or possibly three years. If it takes seven years, then congratulations. It’s just like Apple.”
Bitcoin has declined approximately 45% from its all-time high of nearly $125,000, reflecting the magnitude of Apple’s fall from 2012 to 2013. This downturn has already left impacts. On February 5 alone, when bitcoin dropped from $70,000 to $60,000 in a single day, the network recorded $3.2 billion in entity adjusted realized losses, according to Glassnode. This surpassed the Terra Luna collapse as the largest single-day loss event in bitcoin’s history.
Saylor attributed the more subdued cycle in part to structural modifications. He noted that the shift of derivatives activity from offshore locations to regulated U.S. markets is mitigating volatility in both directions, compressing what could have previously been an 80% drawdown into a 40% to 50% decrease.
Traditional banks continue to be reluctant to provide substantial credit against bitcoin holdings. This compels some investors to resort to shadow banking or rehypothecation arrangements, which can induce artificial selling pressure during stressful periods.
From quantum FUD to Epstein FUD
Saylor was likewise dismissive when queried about the threats posed by quantum computing, characterizing it as the most recent in a long series of existential narratives, from block size conflicts to energy consumption to Chinese mining dominance, that capture attention but ultimately do not disrupt the network.
He asserted that quantum computing is not an imminent danger and is likely more than a decade away from presenting a practical risk. By the time it becomes pertinent, he anticipates that government, financial, consumer, and defense systems will have moved to post-quantum cryptography. Bitcoin’s software will adapt too, he remarked, with nodes, exchanges, and hardware providers upgrading through broad global consensus if needed.
Any significant breakthrough in quantum computing, he argued, would necessitate coordinated upgrades across all digital systems globally, not just bitcoin. In this context, he framed both the quantum narrative and renewed scrutiny surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein files, which have been leveraged by critics against specific Bitcoin Core developers, as evolving forms of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).
"It’s a non-issue," Saylor stated. "I guess they were growing weary of the quantum FUD and shifted to the Epstein FUD."
