Leading financial experts anticipate a shift towards AI as Bitcoin aims to establish its position in the upcoming cycle.

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and Third Point’s Daniel Loeb anticipate stable economic growth but a more challenging market landscape.

(Cindy Ord/Getty Images)

What to know:

• This bitcoin cycle hasn’t functioned as a safeguard against dollar depreciation; however, in a developing and more fragmented market, it might need to establish its worth as a more straightforward, liquid alternative to intricate AI and software-based investments.
• Prominent Wall Street investors foresee U.S. growth to remain robust until 2026, even as the easier phase of the AI-fueled market surge transitions to a more uneven, selective investment atmosphere.
• As capital shifts away from saturated mega-cap technology investments toward sectors such as industrials, electrification, and healthcare, bitcoin may depend less on macroeconomic anxiety and more on its capacity as a portfolio diversifier and institutional asset.

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, and hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb foresee a 2026 economy that may continue to expand, even as market dynamics evolve.
The overarching message from their individual presentations at a Miami conference last week was not that the AI surge is concluding. Instead, they indicated that the easier phase might be finished. As capital disperses beyond a select few major U.S. tech firms, investors may need to concentrate less on following a single theme and more on identifying where growth, pricing power, and disruption will next emerge.

This perspective could be significant for cryptocurrency markets, particularly bitcoin BTC$67,823.22. Should investors shift away from the crowded trades that characterized recent years, some may pay closer attention to assets beyond conventional equity sectors. Bitcoin has frequently behaved like a high-beta technology investment during favorable risk periods, but it can also see increased demand when investors seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets, long-duration growth equities, or during times of policy uncertainty.

In practice, however, bitcoin has not reliably acted as the primary hedge against dollar weakness, particularly in recent months, when gold has emerged as the leading asset as investors move away from the dollar. Nonetheless, as bitcoin matures—many contend it remains a nascent asset compared to gold—this could alter.

Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, mentioned that he has been diversifying portfolios away from concentrated technology investments. While he still appreciates certain technology sectors, he noted that the current investment landscape is unlike any he has encountered in recent memory.

His outlook is partly based on the belief that U.S. growth could surpass expectations, even as interest rates decline. Rieder stated that AI-driven productivity might bolster economic expansion while a still-weak labor market keeps inflation in check. He also asserted that tariffs could be relevant for specific industries but have a diminished effect on the overall economy since the U.S. leans more towards services rather than goods.

For bitcoin, this combination presents both opportunities and challenges. Stronger growth and falling rates would typically support risk assets, including cryptocurrency. However, if inflation remains subdued and real economic activity improves, investors might feel less compelled to seek alternative value stores. In this scenario, bitcoin’s argument may rely less on macroeconomic fears and more on its role in portfolio diversification and institutional acceptance.

Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities, also indicated that the macroeconomic environment should enhance this year, citing fiscal stimulus in major economies and greater scope for U.S. interest rate reductions. Her broader point, however, was that the AI investment landscape is evolving.

After three years in which the markets favored companies facilitating the AI expansion, she noted that investors are entering a stage where winners and losers will become increasingly distinct. UBS has responded by reducing its overweight rating on technology and communication services while shifting focus toward industrials, electrification, and healthcare.

This rotation may also influence cryptocurrency. If equity investors become more discerning regarding AI and digital business models, tokens associated with broad AI concepts may encounter additional examination. Bitcoin may be more favorably positioned than smaller crypto assets in this context due to its simpler investment rationale. It does not hinge on establishing a software revenue model or competing for AI market share.

Loeb, founder of hedge fund Third Point, remarked that the market is already rewarding investors who engage in more in-depth stock selection and increased short selling. He described a transition away from crowded mega-cap positions towards smaller, niche companies, including those in Europe, Japan, and South Korea that supply essential components for the AI expansion.

Regarding the economy, Loeb stated that the U.S. is well-positioned for the upcoming six months, although he expressed less certainty about the outlook beyond that period. He also mentioned that challenges in private credit, particularly in loans connected to software companies, are likely to result in losses over time but not a systemic crisis.

Collectively, the three investors painted a picture of a year in which growth remains resilient, AI continues to be a significant influence, and markets become more complex to navigate. For bitcoin, this could imply fewer advantages from straightforward momentum trading and a greater necessity to independently establish itself as either a hedge, a diversifier, or a liquid alternative in a more fragmented market.