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COIN shares have decreased by nearly 30% this year, with analysts cautioning that reduced trading and lower cryptocurrency prices are expected to impact revenue.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (CoinDesk)
Key points:
- JPMorgan has lowered its price target for Coinbase to $290 from $399 for December 2026, ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings announcement, citing diminished crypto trading volumes, softer prices, and slower growth of USDC.
- The bank continues to rate Coinbase as Overweight but anticipates a significant sequential decline in both earnings and EBITDA, even after accounting for a complete quarter of revenue from the Deribit derivatives acquisition.
- Other institutions, including Barclays and Compass Point, are expressing caution or bearish sentiments, indicating that revenue from retail trading, blockchain rewards, and subscriptions may not meet expectations and are closely linked to overall cryptocurrency prices.
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The downturn in the cryptocurrency market has severely impacted major American exchange Coinbase (COIN), which has observed its stock fall over 50% since bitcoin’s early October peak exceeding $126,000, including a 27% drop in 2026 alone.
In response to this rapid decline, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington has reduced his price target for COIN to $290 from $399 prior to the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which is set to be released after market close on Thursday.
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Worthington remains optimistic about the stock, and his revised target still indicates a potential upside of 75% from COIN’s current price of $1655.
He forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, a decrease from $801 million in the third quarter. This would represent a significant reduction from previous quarters, primarily due to lower trading volumes, diminished crypto prices, and slower growth of USDC stablecoin balances, he noted.
Worthington estimates the spot crypto trading volume for the quarter to be $263 billion. He also highlighted a reduction in USDC circulation, projecting stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. These challenges were somewhat mitigated by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives platform that Coinbase acquired in August.
Including Deribit, JPMorgan projects total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing approximately $117 million based on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.
For subscription and services revenue, the bank anticipates $670 million, which is below Coinbase’s previous guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, due to declining crypto prices, reduced staking yields, and slower USDC growth. Worthington also predicts operating expenses will be lower than guidance as the company tightens its budget.
Additional insights from analysts
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish mentioned that his estimates are approximately 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, influenced by weakened retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenues, based on read-throughs from Robinhood, and blockchain rewards revenues,” Budish stated, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully incorporate publicly available volume data.
Barclays projects Coinbase exchange volume to be around $261 billion for the quarter. Budish noted that Robinhood’s (HOOD) reported retail crypto volumes, which have typically mirrored Coinbase’s, declined roughly 15% quarter over quarter.
Compass Point adopted a more pessimistic view. Analyst Ed Engel expressed a negative outlook on the stock leading into earnings, anticipating disappointment in subscription and services revenue. “While investors assign a premium multiple to COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to confirm that overall revenue remains linked to overall crypto prices,” Engel commented. He also expects January trading revenue to reflect what he referred to as Coinbase’s lowest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the key figures, investors are likely to focus on commentary regarding trading activity early in 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related income, and the potential impact of newer initiatives, such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures operations, on fluctuations in spot crypto markets.
